During the First World War, the Turks were backed by an important military power- the second Reich. In the present, ostensibly they are backed by NATO- but I would submit that our current president would not necessarily honor that agreement. In my opinion, Russia holds more military power than Turkey and would likely win such a conflict unless NATO intervenes.
Turkey warned the Russians days before for previous incursions including calling in their Ambassador to issue them a stern warning. The Russians continued and paid the price. Now they will stay away from the Turkish border. Message semt, message received.