Compared to 1,200 billion barrels in OPEC's reserves?
Posted on 12/09/2015 8:12:46 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Saudi Arabia might just bust OPEC by keeping its taps open, but right now the Kingdom's main concern is strangling American shale production.
Read:
Markets had been expecting Opec to announce a new ceiling on production after last Friday's meeting, but analysts at Barclays said the lack of any curbs in its announcement was a sign of discord. "Past communiques have at least included statements to adhere, strictly adhere, or maintain output in line with the production target. This one glaringly did not. "Â they said.
Saudi Arabia needs oil prices of $100 a barrel to balance its budget, but as the world's biggest exporter of crude it is gambling that the low price will knock out the threat posed by so-called unconventional supplies, such as shale.
The chief executive of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, said at a conference in Doha on Monday that he hoped to see oil prices adjust at the beginning of next year as unconventional oil supplies start to decline.
In a sign that US production could dip, Baker Hughes' November data showed US rig count numbers down month-by-month by 31 to 760 rigs.
The story also notes that "Venezuela, in particular, is thought to be suffering badly as a result of the drop in oil prices." But that's what happens when you're a one-industry socialist country which has been neglecting to invest in that industry.
But here in America? The Saudis aren't stupid, so they must understand that our shale oil isn't going anywhere. Sure, a lot of wells will go offline at $40, even more at $30, and the fracking industry might nearly shut down at $20.
And then what? Oil prices will rise, and those shale wells will come back online.
Saudi Arabia has one big advantage. Its crude oil is plentiful, easy to get to, easy to refine, and cheap to transport. That lets Riyadh set a price floor far below anywhere that most anyone else can make a profit.
American shale oil is also plentiful, but it's much harder to get to, harder to refine, and more expensive to transport. But there's so dang much of it that our frackers can set a price ceiling far below OPEC's salad days of $100-plus crude.
Thanks to the cutthroat capitalism practiced in this country, new extraction methods bring that ceiling lower. Fracking once required $100 oil to make a profit. Now some producers can go as low as $50. And that number will continue to shrink.
Until and unless the Saudis can convince Washington to hobble American frackers by law -- and don't think the Democrats haven't tried and won't try again -- then OPEC's salad days aren't coming back for a very long time, or maybe ever.
The problem with fracking is you get real good production the first couple of years then it drops off dramatically.
The Saudis are engaged in economic warfare as well as funding muslim terrorism. The only debatable controversy is the threshold where economic warfare should cross over to physical warfare. The wartime answer to drive oil prices back up to a more competitive level is to reduce supply by bombing their oilfields. I am a bit surprised the Russians have not already done it.
No. In a typical well in a shale field, the hydraulic fracturing cost typically exceeds the cost of the drilling. Hydro fracs are done after the drilling is complete and that rig moves off the well.
Adding taxes to make it more expensive to refine crude oil in the US, compared to other countries, is insane.
An act of war. Sieze all Saudi assets.
Any kill is temporary
Which sounds oxymoronic
That is the problem with horizontals wells in tight formations like shale.
It is not a characteristic of wells stimulated by hydro fracs in general.
It was at $1.38 in Texas last week, Wharton, Texas, southwest of Houston. Back up to $1.40s today.
http://www.texasgasprices.com/
The problem with this, of course, is that the Saudis are killing the Russian economy in the process. The Russians intend to put a stop to the Saudi tactic - by force.
The saudis are part of it, but not the only part. I suspect some groups are trying to short the domestic energy markets (coal, oil, nat gas, generation, and related industries) through a combination of regulatory warfare, price manipulation, and deliberately bankrupting industry concerns to invoke fire sale prices. Look at bankruptcy proceedings and sales to find who the culprits are. Somebody wants total control of US energy production. It’s the last major market we have left in the economy, and sombody wants to break it.
when will Saudi finally run out of oil? How come all other fields in the world get pumped dry rather fast but theirs?
The Russians are part of the oversupply themselves.
Russian Oil Output Hits Post-Soviet High, Bests Saudi Arabia
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3356695/posts
Saudi Oil prices will not rise for a long time. In fact, the discovery of oil in areas controlled by Israel will ensure this.
SEE HERE:
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/156476
TITLE:
Israel Discovers New Giant Off-Shore Oil and Gas Field
I do not like the Saudis- but there may be Other factors as to why they are still pumping like mad-
1. they are hurting ALL of their opec allies-
from Venezuela to Nigeria -
is this in response to Iran getting to come back into
the global market?
2. is this to hurt the Russians?(second largest exporter)
hell - maybe they are Mad at Canada!- and told O’bozo
to NOT build the keystone pipeline!
3. last.. real world recession- and realized that at even
$75 a barrel was to high
just thinking out loud
At which point the U.S. should guarantee a minimum price on fracked oil and stockpile it in new storage, meanwhile buying and burning the world supply $20/oil. The Saudis will eventually lose the game of chicken, at which the U.S. government could sell the stored oil at free market prices, making a profit.
This isn’t a free market at work, its dumping to reestablish a foreign and hostile monopoly.
The Saudis must have ~$90/barrel to pay their bills. They are already burning through their sovereign funds and at $20/barrel they couldn’t last 3 years. Meanwhile we all enjoy cheap fuel and the our fracking industry survives.
So what is Obozo wanting to do with the SPR? Sell it off.
We could sell it to American refineries while topping it with domestic shale oil.
But Uniparty prolly has a problem with something that would help American petroleum workers and motorists.
The Sauds have bought enough congressmen to start a small army...
You’re probably not wrong - and I, personally, think that their primary target is Iran.
Nonetheless, I think that we need a tariff to keep prices at no least than $50/bbl. If there’s a major disruption in the world market and/or a war, we need to have LOTS of producing wells on line.
Somebody is losing money at those prices, even with current low oil prices. Lowest I’ve seen is $1.60 in San Antonio (at one station, everyone else is at $1.65-$1.75), but of course it would be lower outside of a big city.
But no matter what, a 50% decrease in the price of the underlying commodity will NOT result in a 50% decrease in the cost of gasoline.
Compared to 1,200 billion barrels in OPEC's reserves?
Never.
The US government (tax payers) should not be trying to subsidize private industry.
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