[Hieronymus]

On an article that was the basis of an earlier thread, I read about some rule changes concerning the convention which were presented as being pro-establishment, but not enough rules were given to make things clear—and only by working through things in the real world will one see actual results.

26 states are early (before March 15) and only 25 states are winner-take all, with all of this later group except for S.C. being after March 15. To have one’s name placed in nomination, one needs a majority in eight state delegations, which means winning at least a third of the winner take all states OR making up where one falls short in the winner take all category by taking an absolute majority in one of the earlier proportional states.

To be assured of a win on the first ballot going in, one needs to be nominated (probably courtesy of the winner-take-all states) and have done well enough in the proportional states to be put over the top by the winner-take-all states.

What is not clear is what happens if either (a) no one has the minimum of eight states or (b) what happens to the delegates of those people who are not nominated.

At this point, I don’t see anyone other than Cruz and Trump picking up the eight state minimum, so I’d think that the high barrier to entry should back-fire against the establishment.

[Amntn]

If no one meets the standard for a first ballot win, they start trying to change the delegates minds on whom to vote for.

They can buy votes, intimidate, or any other thing they can come up with.

They can try to make a deal with the candidate like with Reagan by insisting he name GHW his running mate.

At some point they can enter another name for consideration including someone who has not even run in the priamary (Mitt or Daniels).

[TomGuy]

I started the chart below to keep a running total of accumulated delegates by state primary:

2016 Republican Primary dates and delegate counts
Date	State/	Calculated	Type	Cumulative Total
[110]	territory	delegates	[113]	1305 to Win
[111]		[112]	[b]	(includes bonus delegates)
		[a]
February 1, 2016	Iowa	30	Closed caucus	30
February 9, 2016	New Hampshire	23	Modified primary	53
February 20, 2016	South Carolina	50	Open primary	103
February 23, 2016	Nevada	30	Closed caucus	133
March 1, 2016	Alabama	50	Open primary	183
	Alaska	28	Closed caucus	211
	Arkansas	40	Open primary	251
	Georgia	76	Modified primary	327
	Massachusetts	42	Modified primary	369
	Minnesota	38	Open caucus	407
	Oklahoma	43	Closed primary	450
	Tennessee	58	Open primary	508
	Texas	155	Open primary	663
	Vermont	16	Open primary	679
	Virginia	49	Open primary	728
	Wyoming	29	Closed caucus	757
March 5, 2016	Maine	23	Closed caucus	780
	Kansas	40	Closed caucus	820
	Kentucky	45	Closed caucus	865
	Louisiana	46	Closed primary	911
March 8, 2016	Hawaii	19	Closed caucus	930
	Idaho	32	Closed primary	962
	Mississippi	39	Open primary	1001
	Michigan	59	Closed primary	1060
March 12, 2016	District of Columbia	19	Closed caucus	1079
	Guam	9	Closed caucus	1088
March 13, 2016	Puerto Rico	23	Open primary	1111
March 15, 2016	Ohio	66	Modified primary	1177
	Florida	99	Closed primary	1276
	Illinois	69	Open primary	1345
	Missouri	52	Modified caucus	1397
	North Carolina	72	Modified primary	1469
March 22, 2016	Arizona	58	Closed primary	1527
	Utah	40	Modified primary	1567
April 5, 2016	Wisconsin	42	Open primary	1609
April 19, 2016	New York	95	Closed primary	1704
April 26, 2016	Connecticut	28	Closed primary	1732
	Delaware	16	Closed primary	1748
	Maryland	38	Closed primary	1786
	Pennsylvania	71	Closed primary	1857
	Rhode Island	19	Modified primary	1876
May 3, 2016	Indiana	57	Open primary	1933
May 10, 2016	Nebraska	36	Semi-closed primary	1969
	West Virginia	34	Modified primary	2003
May 17, 2016	Oregon	28	Closed primary	2031
May 24, 2016	Washington	44	Closed primary	2075
June 7, 2016	California	172	Closed primary	2247
	Montana	27	Closed caucus	2274
	New Jersey	51	Modified primary	2325
	New Mexico	24	Closed primary	2349
	South Dakota	29	Closed primary	2378
TBA	North Dakota	28	Closed caucus
TBA	Colorado	37	Closed caucus
TBA	American Samoa	9	Open caucus
TBA	Northern Marianas	9	Closed caucus
TBA	Virgin Islands	9	Closed caucus

==

It could all be over after the March 15 primaries.