Posted on 12/25/2015 11:11:56 AM PST by Red Steel
Even with their liberal views, their statistics is sound. Rush often cites their work for that very reason.
Wishful thinking.
A look at the internals show “Moderates” were heavily oversampled. Looks like only the urban areas were hit. And 87% of all Respondents stated they were not aligned with the “Tea Party”.
Bottom Line: Cruz tied Trump despite the oversampling. Cruz’s real lead is at least +7 if not +10.
Not this year, little Silver looking to jump the shark this election season.
I disagree
Rubio gets the bartenders vote. Kasick gets the postal vote.
You are right on this one.
People need to read the Internals on this one. Completely out of whack for the normal makeup of the Caucuses.
The fact Cruz is tied with Trump given these internals shows the lead is much bigger for Cruz.
I’m off from work next week so I’m going to work on finishing my 99 county by county simulation, but your numbers look about right:
40% for Cruz seems like a decent bet right now. It could go higher depending on what happens to Carson, Huckabee, Santorum, and Paul. I think if Carson doesn’t drop off, he’ll still pull 5%. Huckabee might get 3%. And Santorum probably gets 1%.
I still think Trump is still capped at 27%. His IA Team is banking on 30,000 supporters, but depending on turnout that percentage could end up lower.
In regards to these polls, I would like to see the polling firms release specifics for Sioux and Linn Counties. If Cruz > 50% is Sioux or Trump > 45% in Linn, then that would give an indication of which way the state is going.
Rubio is now the Establishment candidate. 9% seems a bit low. There’s still at least 25% of the Caucus population that usually goes to the establishment and although he has to split it with Bush and Christie, I’m thinking Ruibo can still get somewhere between 12-14%
Recap:
Cruz 39%
Trump 26%
Rubio: 12%
Carson: 6%
Bush: 6%
Paul: 3%
Huckabee 3%
Fiorina: 2%
Christie: 2%
Santorum: 1%
Kasich/Pataki/Others: <1%
Nobody else has that going on.
He did that yesterday. Or was it the day before? Maybe sometime last week. A month ago? Maybe two? More than two? I'm a little confused.
Trump has an excellent chance in taking Iowa. Many can’t look beyond what their favorite is doing. I take a look at them all. Read this article from August that takes a peek into the Trump Iowa campaign. It’s well organized and doing very well. You can imaging what it is like now in December. :-)
http://wqad.com/2015/08/31/trump-opening-campaign-offices-in-iowa/
Looking at the numbers posted in #41 above only about 20% turn out for the GOP caucuses.
That’s 80% of GOP voters from which to draw attendees. Now the question is will they
attend or not. If they do then the normal may be totally turned upside down on
Feb. 1, 2016. For that to happen some motivation factor has to be found and used.
See how that works?
Well, one way to look at this is that since the DMR poll Trump has gained 10 points. These are also “likely” voters. Those ready to bury Trump after DMR may be eating crow before too long. Personally, when I saw PPP IA I thought Cruz had peaked there.
Thanks!
Nah, its a pattern with trumpsters to post as many trump polls as possible.
Just watch how soon this thread is buried by trumpsters
Thanks for the ping!
I keep hearing how Cruz is surging and is unstoppable. So I’ve given up on Iowa, but know Trump will win most of the other states. Yet here they are neck and neck. It could go either way. If Cruz wins, Trump still gets the other states. If Trump wins, he’s unstoppable.
So these articles aimed at suppressing the Trump vote is pointless.
;)
Here you are being logical and rational. I hope you don’t expect the same back from a Cruz-bots because you’ll be disappointed. On Christmas no less!
what are your reasons backing the statement Cruz has peaked?
let’s not get like the media in saying trump is done over and over.
just because one wants it be so, doesn’t mean it is true.
I am for Cruz, but he is leading in just one state.
I don’t see why that is a large matter?
yes, yes, I will vote for trump in the generals.
being from nyc, I’ve been hearing about the guy since I was a kid. don’t recall anything negative.
the marriages were tabloid fodder though. I’m glad that has not affected him.
There was no abuse involved. And from what I recall, the cheating was on the woman’s part, in Marla’s case anyway.
“There are people out in Iowa today calling and ringing doorbells for Cruz.
Nobody else has that going on.”
I’m fine with Trump supporters staying home for Christmas and celebrating Jesus’ birth - and letting others do the same. Anything else is tasteless.
You need to read more carefully. This is an automated phone poll, which means that there is no person on the line asking the questions, so your assumption has no merit in this case. Actually, automated polls tend to be LESS accurate because fewer people will respond, and the responses they do receive are harder to validate.
On another note, the last time this particular poll was done, it had Trump at 29% and Cruz at 9%. So this poll shows much the same trend as all of the other Iowa polls - Trump staying more or less steady, while Cruz makes a huge increase in support.
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