Posted on 12/25/2015 11:11:56 AM PST by Red Steel
Winter Springs, Fla. - An extended lead for Democrat Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and a virtual tie on the Republican side highlights a recent Gravis Marketing poll from Iowa. The nonpartisan research firm based in Winter Springs, Fla recently conducted a random phone survey of 1,027 registered, likely primary voters in Iowa that was split into two specific demographics. The automated IVR survey which was conducted from December 18th to the 21st, includes 440 Republican Caucus participants, 418 Democratic Caucus participants, and the remainder not planning on participating in the caucus, but is planning to vote in the regular elections.
The poll has a margin of error of +-3% [5% for Republican and Democratic caucuses]. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted using automated telephone calls (IVR technology) and weighted separately for each population in the question presented. The results following highlight the Republican and Democrat party results from the recent Iowa poll.
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The focus of the Gravis Marketing poll then shifted to asking about the Republican and Democrat Caucus member's choice for their parties nominee for President of the United States. When asked to choose between a pool of 13 potential candidates; including front runners Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, the Caucus members were split; with both Trump and Cruz receiving 31 percent support from Caucus member. Florida Senator Marco Rubio captured 9 percent of the potential vote, while Dr. Ben Carson and Jeb Bush rounded up the top five with seven and five percent.
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Doug Kaplan, the President of Gravis Marketing offered his analysis of the recent Iowa polling; "The Republican race in Iowa is very close. The questions we must ask is has Ted Cruz peaked too early ...
(Excerpt) Read more at gravismarketing.com ...
Cruz wins Iowa easily, and the remaining delegates will be shared proportionately.
I have absolutely no idea of accuracy or the like with this, but the impact of this when you consider the sum of the two tells me the effing Republican Establishment had better put a bib on and start acquainting themselves with the phrase, “suck it.”
Easily? No.
Go, Trump, GO!
Go, Cruz, GO!
We win, they lose.
Fyi
If crowds mean anything Trump has an advantage.
Iowa is such an overated primary, Huck and Santorum won, didn’t predict anything.
Its a religious primary who is holier than the next guy.
I suppose Cruz has an advantage being the son of a preacher.
You are so right. That is the true headline: Poll suggests that 62% of Iowa voters have told Karl Rove and Jeb! Bush to go friend themselves.
Love it.
The sum of Cruz, Trump, and Carson is 69% and that entire total opposes both big government and the GOP establishment. That is far more important than whether Cruz or Trump beats the other by 1% or even 10%.
Love it!
>>>the sum of the two tells me the effing Republican Establishment had better put a bib on and start acquainting themselves with the phrase, “suck it.â€<<<
Absolutely! When you throw in the 2 other ‘Outsiders’, Carson & Fiorina, 72% of the Iowa Pubbie electorate is giving the Bronx cheer to the GOPe! Take that Tokyo Rove!
When you add the "I'm afraid to say I love Trump" voters, that puts Donald at about 37%...
Merry Christmas!
The accuracy is easily computed from the sample size, and is +/- 6% at 99% confidence...
Note that this is not what’s stated for this survey; they are being disingenuous by lumping Dims and Republicans together into their statement of “sample size.”
Not even close.
So you know the heart of all the religious voters in Iowa; Jesus is that you?
Let’s face it, Iowa voters are stupid. Look how well Carson was doing before he tanked over the slightest turbulence.
What we have here is that the entire total opposes both big government and the GOP establishment
I suspect he'll win it with 40% and the next closest will be 20-25%.
He has too much evangelical support (Carson is gone), too much hard money and too mature a ground organization to lose it.
I think Trump will finish 2nd or 3rd.
Then I suspect Trump will start a long series of wins starting with NH.
Iowa Republican caucus goers are very conservative. Can’t see Cruz losing to Trump there. NH is the flip of that. SC is a big question in my mind.
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