Cruz wins Iowa easily, and the remaining delegates will be shared proportionately.
Easily? No.
.
Nothing will be proportional.
Cruz will pick up 90% or more of the drop-outs support.
Trump has so far failed to pick up any measurable drop-out support, and will likely begin losing the non-infatuated supporters he has to Cruz.
“Cruz wins Iowa easily”
I predict he won’t finish in the top 2.
There are at least 5 outside groups beginning to hit him with negative ads on everything from ethanol to gay marriage.
This is Iowa. 4 yeas ago Newt was ahead but when the outside groups were done with him he was behind Ron Paul.
IMO, you're more accurate on the last half of this, to my chagrin.
As for the first part, I'm not sold on that by a long shot.
You are right on this one.
People need to read the Internals on this one. Completely out of whack for the normal makeup of the Caucuses.
The fact Cruz is tied with Trump given these internals shows the lead is much bigger for Cruz.
I’m off from work next week so I’m going to work on finishing my 99 county by county simulation, but your numbers look about right:
40% for Cruz seems like a decent bet right now. It could go higher depending on what happens to Carson, Huckabee, Santorum, and Paul. I think if Carson doesn’t drop off, he’ll still pull 5%. Huckabee might get 3%. And Santorum probably gets 1%.
I still think Trump is still capped at 27%. His IA Team is banking on 30,000 supporters, but depending on turnout that percentage could end up lower.
In regards to these polls, I would like to see the polling firms release specifics for Sioux and Linn Counties. If Cruz > 50% is Sioux or Trump > 45% in Linn, then that would give an indication of which way the state is going.
Rubio is now the Establishment candidate. 9% seems a bit low. There’s still at least 25% of the Caucus population that usually goes to the establishment and although he has to split it with Bush and Christie, I’m thinking Ruibo can still get somewhere between 12-14%
Recap:
Cruz 39%
Trump 26%
Rubio: 12%
Carson: 6%
Bush: 6%
Paul: 3%
Huckabee 3%
Fiorina: 2%
Christie: 2%
Santorum: 1%
Kasich/Pataki/Others: <1%
Well, one way to look at this is that since the DMR poll Trump has gained 10 points. These are also “likely” voters. Those ready to bury Trump after DMR may be eating crow before too long. Personally, when I saw PPP IA I thought Cruz had peaked there.
Iowa voters go for religious candidates like Santorum & Huckabee. Only about 2.5% of Iowans participate in republican caucus.
That is why it is very poor indicator for who will win nomination.