I suspect he'll win it with 40% and the next closest will be 20-25%.
He has too much evangelical support (Carson is gone), too much hard money and too mature a ground organization to lose it.
I think Trump will finish 2nd or 3rd.
Then I suspect Trump will start a long series of wins starting with NH.
Cruz and Trump have the best ground games there.
Time will tell.
I suspect you could be very wrong. I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.