There is a thing in Hollywood called the Napoleon Dynamite Paradox.
That film was a box-office hit in 2004. It was a small independent production. No Hollywood studio ever would have made it because none of their vast reams of statistical data indicated that it ever SHOULD be made, or that it would become a hit.
This still has the people who run studios nervous and upset over a decade later, because if your data no longer allows you to consistently predict the market, you are essentially working blindfolded. To this day they still can’t figure out what all of their expensive research missed about that film.
I submit that Donald Trump is the Napoleon Dynamite Paradox of politics.
>>>I submit that Donald Trump is the Napoleon Dynamite Paradox of politics.
Or, perhaps Nate Silver is the Donald Trump of political forecasting
:)
And you may be right. This year is different.
But note that we are basing that belief on only two things: The polls (the same ones that Nate Silver reads) and the huge turnouts that Trump is getting. While the mood of the public is certainly different we are still using polls and turnouts to establish our belief that Trump or perhaps Cruz will win the GOP nomination.
Trump may be more Star Wars and less Napolean Dynamite than you think.