Posted on 01/07/2016 6:38:59 PM PST by springwater13
"I look at Trump, and his ceiling is so much higher than everyone else's," says Craig Robinson, a former political director of the Iowa GOP who now runs the Iowa Republican blog. "His campaign has gone out and had people self-identify that they're interested in him, and they've captured that data."
Robinson's assessment runs counter to one of the dearest-held assumptions of the political punditocracy. Many commentators believe Trump has a high floor but a low ceiling - that is, his supporters really, really support him and are unlikely to go anywhere else, but he doesn't have much room to grow, because he already has the loyalty of Republicans who are inclined to like him.
To Robinson, that's not the way it looks in Iowa. Start with the numbers.
In 2000, George W. Bush won the caucuses with 35,231 votes. In 2008, Mike Huckabee won with 40,954. In 2012, Rick Santorum won with 29,839.
"Ted Cruz is swimming in a pond where the capacity is about 30,000 votes," says Robinson. "I look at Trump and think that Trump is at that 30,000 mark now, and has the ability to blow past it, if they do a good job of turning their people out."
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
Rome2000 Said:
“If Trump loses in Iowa, it will only ensure this is the LAST TIME these 99.99% WHITE IMBECILES get to weigh in on the RIGHT WING CANDIDATE FOR POTUS.”
Wow. What a disgraceful comment.
He'll probably raffle off spaces on his helicopter for a ride to the caucus, and swoop up all the losing entrants into luxury coaches with hors d'oeuvres for the ride over.
I live in Iowa and think the caucuses are pretty good for the most part. The Republican process is pretty straight forward. Secret ballot. The Dems is open for gamesmanship. Voters have to stand and publicly declare support for a candidate by standing with a group. Then they go to a second round to winnow the field. Round two can be nasty.
If it's 14 Cruz / 13 Trump: "Trump crashes, burns, loses big in Iowa!"
If it's 13 Cruz /14 Trump: "Cruz victory over Trump certain to follow near rout in Iowa."
Ted Cruz is running for a primary in Iowa. Donald Trump is running for President of the United States.
“And focusing 90 percent of his fire on his general election opponent.”
Oh is that what they’re calling it now. Could of fooled me. Silly me, I thought this election would be about actually having conservative ideals and principles and substantive issues at the forefront of the race this time around. But it’s clear people like you want it to be about anger and emotion.
So I’m suppose to cheer and worship the mighty Donald just because he says:
Wants Rand Paul to be primaried in Kentucky
Griping about not being selected as Time Person of the Year
Talks tough on gun rights, yet I still don’t see the “Gun-Free” zones being lifted from the Trump Hotel Properties
Supports 40% Tarriff on imports
Talks about himself and polls and how great he is 24/7 and throws in a jab at Hillary and Bernie every now and then while tossing out protestors they allowed in so they could toss out to rile up the crowd.
It’s a circus. People not serious about saving the country support Trump. Those of us who grew up and have an adult-level IQ support Cruz.
This article was written about you and most of the Trump supporters here fall under the first 3 points:
https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/01/how-to-identify-a-political-sappy
You simply do not know this until the caucuses open.
Cruz looks more like he is in a panic with his bus tour all over Iowa while Trump is having huge rallies in the tens of thousands and Cruz can’t even draw 50 at a crack!!!
As I said you really do not know what will happen. When the voting starts the truth will come out.
Iowans need to get with the program.
Last chance
Big takeover coming down.
“takeover”
Oh, are you one of those Trumpsters that was advocating that Trump should shred the Constitution and rule as a dictator?
I’ve never seem statism associated with conservatism.
Trump is an executive and a manager. He buys the best talented people he can find and lets them do their jobs. That is why Trump is not in Iowa right now. Trump understands that he cannot do it all himself. In order to be successful he has to delegate. That is how he has amassed a $12 billion fortune.
Cruz on the other hand is a senator. His training is to micro manage and dictate what needs to be done and so he is wearing himself out puddle jumping in Iowa in his bus. Unfortunately he is like Hillary, Obama, McCain all senators who do not understand how to manage and delegate. In the end, that is Cruz’ Achilles heel and downfall. Senators make absolutely terrible presidents. They have very little real world experience the more they stay as senators.
About a day or two before the caucuses open, the poll numbers will unexpectedly break for Trump because the msm will have to save face for cooking the books like they did with Bush, then Fiorina, then Carson, then Rubio and finally Cruz.
The last 48 hours before the caucuses open will reveal all.
Byron got himself a dose reality. Trump support understated in the state polls. Turnout. Turnout. Turnout.
Yeah, lots of people seem to go for the show. So they were then when he dropped a bomb, or just for entertainment. This is what Trump does. This article seemed a bit of hype, based on one guy’s observations.
Cruz is the ONLY candidate moving up in polls. Remember in the summer Trump said he wouldn’t use the birther stuff unless it got down to the two of them. Trump sees what is coming. I know you can’t go by polls but Cruz is so solid. Conservatives see it. And only 11% of Iowans in one of those polls said Trump had temperament to be POTUS. I looked at internals on Iowa tonight and Trump really does not look good inside.
Trumpees cannot help themselves. Someone called one of our best girlfriends the C word tonight, apparently has done so before. My anger is turning to pity. Funny, huh?
Jeb is low energy and Cruz is low synergy???
It’s easier, and more fun, just not to take his posts seriously.
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