And once they get exposure to this, they will lay down their arms.
Posted on 01/08/2016 5:00:57 AM PST by sukhoi-30mki
As tensions with North Korea rise following Pyongyang’s alleged hydrogen bomb test, there is the specter of a renewed war on the peninsula.
In the years following the Korean Armistice Agreement in 1953 — which ended the conflict in a ceasefire without formally terminating hostilities — the U.S. military was the guarantor of the Republic of Korea’s security. More than 60 years later, United States Forces Korea — led by U.S. Army Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti — maintains a force of over 28,500 troops in South Korea to defend Seoul from Pyongyang’s depredations.
But by-and-large, South Korea is defended by its own large, well-trained and well-equipped forces — albeit under U.S. command during times of war.
Indeed, with 630,000 troops under arms and equipped with advanced hardware, the Republic of Korea Armed Forces had been slated to take wartime command of its own forces by December 2015, but the United States agreed to delay the transfer of command to allay the fears of South Korean conservatives until about the mid-2020s.
South Korea has also asked the United States to delay moving its frontline combat troops away from the border with the North. That means that the U.S. Army will keep the 210th Field Artillery Brigade and its M270A1 Multiple Launch Rocket System batteries in place at Camp Casey in Dongducheon — just north of Seoul. Those artillery pieces are part of the Combined Forces Command’s defenses against the mass of North Korean artillery that could reduce the massive city to smoldering rubble in a matter of hours.
If the situation on the Korean peninsula does ever degenerate into a new shooting war, Seoul would likely be badly damaged. But apart from the loss to the city, the ROKAF would be more than capable of handling the Korean People’s Army during any conflict short of a nuclear war or direct intervention by the People’s Republic of China — where Washington would have to step in with its vast arsenal.
The North’s KPA — while it is enormous — is mostly trained and equipped with antiquated Soviet hardware from the 1950s and ‘60s. While the KPA has some modern elements and has a number asymmetrical capabilities it hopes might be able to offset its massive technological and training deficit, North Korean forces are not likely to be a match for the ROKAF in a conventional set piece battle.
The only factors in their favor are sheer numbers.
The most threatening component of the KPA is the Korean People’s Army Ground Force — which has thousands of tanks and artillery pieces. North Korea’s most advanced tank is the P’okpung-ho — of which it has perhaps 500 examples — but the is vehicle is a poorly reverse-engineered version of the Soviet T-62 with elements drawn from the T-72 and other Chinese tanks.
The rest of the KPA’s vast tank armada is comprised of antiquated Soviet T-55s, T-62s and Chinese and indigenous knockoffs of those Russian designs.
None of those machines are a match for the ROK Army’s nearly 1,600 modern indigenously built K1, K1A1 and K1A2 main battle tanks — let alone the new K2 Black Panther. While outnumbered, the ROKA’s tank fleet is vastly qualitatively superior in equipment and training — which is a combination that can produce lopsided victories as Operation Desert Storm showed in 1991.
But if qualitative superiority wasn’t enough, the RKOA also has about three-dozen Russian T-80Us main battle tanks and thousands of older — but upgraded — M48Pattons to bulk up its forces. While the two sides’ tank forces are but one example — it’s a pattern that repeats itself across the range of forces available to both the North and the South.
The ROK Air Force is another example where the South has overwhelming qualitative superiority. The most advanced aircraft in the Korean People’s Army Air Force are its fleet of 35 early model Soviet-built Mikoyan MiG-29 Fulcrums, which are formidable threats only if they survive long enough to get within visual range.
The rest of the KPAAF is comprised of mostly of antiquated Chinese-built copies of the MiG-17, MiG-19 and MiG-21. The low number of flying hours and training their pilots receive compounds the KPAAF’s technological deficit.
Thanks to superior technology and training, North Korea’s air force would likely be annihilated by the ROKAF’s F-16C/Ds Fighting Falcons, F-15K Strike Eagles, FA-50s and eventually its Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighters — when those stealth fighters are delivered. South Korean pilots are well trained and fly far more often in realistic combat exercises than their Northern cousins — which is a crucial advantage.
The only wild card is North Korea’s dense air defenses — which are similar to the force Iraq fielded before Operation Desert Storm in 1991. While the bulk of KPA’s surface-to-air missiles are elderly weapons, those systems could pose problems for ROKAF air operations over the North until they are eliminated.
Most of Pyongyang’s air defenses use old Soviet weapons like the S-75 Dvina, S-125 Neva and the S-200 Angara — which are relatively simple to eliminate. However, there are some unconfirmed reports that suggest North Korea may have gotten its hands on a reverse-engineered copy of the powerful Russian S-300 and 9K37 Buk systems — which are very difficult to counter. However, that’s probably not likely.
It’s not entirely in South Korea’s favor — Pyongyang would do a lot of damage to the South with its artillery and ballistic missiles. South Korea has not invested adequately to counter the North’s ballistic missile threat. Seoul has only bought a handful of Patriot batteries — some of which are going to be upgraded to the PAC-3 standard — but that’s not enough to ward of the Pyongyang’s missiles.
The ROK needs to invest in more PAC-3 — or Lockheed’s Medium Extended Air Defense System — batteries and should very seriously consider acquiring a substantial number of the U.S. Army’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile defense system to provide more comprehensive coverage.
Ultimately, however, if it came to a shooting war with the North — unless the conflict were to become a nuclear confrontation (which it very well could) or China intervened — the ROK would be able to handle an invasion by the so-called Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
South Korea country would suffer serious damage in such a confrontation, but the ROKAF is now strong enough to take on KPA without outside assistance. Nonetheless, Seoul is not likely turn down military assistance from the United States any time soon.
I just read up on some of nuclear strategies and conditional use and we are a sworn non-first use nation as are the Chinese.
The DPRK though no doubt has no such limitation.
I just can’t imagine that in a would be civil war to them they’d nuke their own people. An American base or installation? Yeah, I think they’d consider it.
One Ohio class could empty two silos and the DPRK would glow for generations. I can’t imagine the DPRK doesn’t realize that or they’d be so stupid to actually use a nuke.
“I think the damage to Seoul would depend solely on the reaction time of being able to turn 30-40 miles of DPRK territory into a cratered wasteland inside”
Bingo.
The problem, of course, is that Kim is using Iranian technology for his nuclear program, and the Iranian kooks have much less concern for their own worldly butts. It's also likely that they are using NorK as their own nuclear proving ground.
” I can’t imagine the DPRK doesn’t realize that or they’d be so stupid to actually use a nuke.”
DPRK is controlled by a small number of people. What happens when they realize they are going to lose their power and wealth?
I think that is an widely accepted doctrine for these people. My dad was there from 50-53 and he hated them all, north and south. Said they would let them on the base to work during the day they spent more time casing the place then go up in the hills at night and snipe at them. Sooner we leave the better
It hinges on Japan—will they join with South Korea? It also hinges on China—will they support North Korea? By how much? Will they risk US-China Trade? What of Putin’d Russia? Other factors are in play.
“Do you or does anyone reading this thread suspect, as I do, that the ROK is an undeclared nuclear power the way the Israelis are?
I really have no doubt they have one sitting somewhere just as about 15-20 nations could spin one up inside 30 days should the need arise.”
There are sharing arrangements, whereby warheads can be stored in a country, for use by that country, with approval by the country that owns them (such as executing a pre-coordinated war plan). Sharing the nuclear umbrella.
Part of the rationale for such agreements, is to prevent proliferation of weapons programs across many countries, which have legitimate threats they need to address.
That is a big reason that there is no stopping the Saudis from nuking up in response to Iran - they can have a similar agreement with Pakistan. What could NATO say about that, when they do it themselves?
I want to make sure I understand this correctly.
Okay, we’ve had nukes in Europe for 70 years likely in Britain and Germany though I’m sure it’s never officially confirmed short of when we had boomers pulling into Holy Loch.
Am I to understand that any weapons on British or German soil were technically controlled by American forces but the Germans could say “Okay America, nuke this part of East Germany because of how the war is going.”
So the host nation could request it and we were obligated to at their request or our government had the okay to go ahead if they wished.
“So the host nation could request it (nuke) and we were obligated to at their request”?
No, they could not use them without our approval.
But there were naturally long discussions, plans and agreements ahead of time on the who, what, where, when, why.
If America doesn’t fight for South Korea, ultimately China will......for a price.
China and South Korea have been cozying up, China knows long-term who the winner is between the two.
China wants the Norks gone as bad as South Korea, they are more of a headache to them now.
What China fears is a rush of refugees coming over their border, which is why their main goal is stability. South Korea has the very same concern. So it behooves both China and South Korea to more than anything try to keep stability to avoid chaos in their own countries.
South Korea has twice the population and 50 times the economy of the North.
Time to let them fend for themselves.
Out of the Korean Peninsula!!
Those camps have been statically in place for decades - so I always assumed that the Norks had a grid coordinate for every barracks, every parked tank, etc...and a rocket pointed at each one.
I also believed that the Norks had to know the best time to attack was Saturday night, since so many guys went to town to get drunk.
And once they get exposure to this, they will lay down their arms.
Im sure the NKs do know. Since they have plenty of spies, some of them very cute and cuddly.
Why?
The cost is foolish.
Let Uncle Sugar take care of that.
I think the South just has to survive the initial blow. The north has no food or ability to resupply their army. Sort of like taking a beating in the first round of a boxing match, survive it and you will win in the end.
That and Levi’s!
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