HaÂÂck up that hairball!
Posted on 01/21/2016 1:17:47 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
The bedtime story that "Establishment" Republicans read to themselves after days dominated by the likes of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz is that once the nominating contest gets by the Bible-obsessed precincts of Iowa and the Deep South, whichever candidate emerges in the "moderate" lane will win, just like Mitt Romney did in 2012 after Rick Santorum threw him a scare for a bit.
David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report wrote a sophisticated version of this story for FiveThirtyEight in November, emphasizing the disproportional representation of blue states in GOP convention delegates. But it, too, relied on the assumption that blue-state Republican primary voters won't support extremist candidates; Carson, Cruz, and Trump are adjudged as facing "doom" in the headline.
Now comes the empirically minded journalist Ron Brownstein with an analysis of the GOP primary electorate that should keep some Republicans awake with night terrors.
Using 2008, 2012, and current polling data, Brownstein divides the Republican electorate into four roughly equal groups divided by religion and education: college-educated Evangelicals and non-Evangelicals, and non-college-educated Evangelicals and non-Evangelicals. In the last two cycles, he says, educational levels weren't that important in determining candidate preference:
Both in 2008 and 2012, there was no maÂjor difÂferÂence in the votÂing choices of blue- and white-colÂlar evanÂgelÂicÂal ChrisÂtiÂans across the key states, acÂcordÂing to preÂviÂously unÂpubÂlished resÂults from the exit polls in those years provided by EdisÂon ReÂsearch, which conÂducts the surÂveys. The bigÂger diÂvide was between voters who were and were not evanÂgelÂicÂal: RomÂney, for inÂstance, won about half of the former, but just unÂder one-third of the latÂter, acÂcordÂing to a cuÂmuÂlatÂive anaÂlysÂis of 2012 exit polls conÂducÂted by ABC PollÂster Gary Langer.
But in this cycle, education levels -- generally an indicator of class -- are pretty big differentiators. In particular, Ted Cruz is leading strongly with college-educated Evangelicals, while Cruz and Donald Trump are in a close battle for blue-collar Evangelicals. Brownstein views this competition as potentially decisive. Yet he also notes that Trump's very best group among the four is blue-collar non-Evangelicals -- the "opposite corner" of the party from Cruz's stronghold, and a group that was part of Romney's coalition in 2012. There's really only one quadrant of primary voters that the Establishment candidates are (collectively) dominating, and that's the college-educated non-Evangelicals. The important thing to understand is that there aren't enough of them to control the nomination if another candidate is leading with the other three, which Trump, in particular, has a good chance of doing. Additionally, the voters in this quadrant will have even less influence than their numbers would indicate so long as they are divided among Rubio, Christie, Kasich, and Bush.
Perhaps at some point after New Hampshire all but one of these candidates will withdraw, but even then the survivor could face an uphill climb. Yes, said candidate will then consolidate an awful lot of elected official endorsements. This does not, however, seem to be a year in which Republican voters are anxiously waiting for elite signals to emerge from the Beltway and other power centers like white smoke from the Vatican to indicate when "the party decides."
The class-warfare element that Trump has introduced into the Republican nominating contest means that the non-Evangelicals who united to smite Rick Santorum and anoint Mitt Romney in 2012 may be divided. And that could be bad, bad news for the Establishment and its sleeping habits.
Somebody’s worried. Why do I feel good?
The GrOP-E need to take the advice they’ve given for years.
Hold their nose and vote for the nominee.
It would be nice if Ed Kilgore would take the time to tell us about the 'education and class' levels of Hillary's supporters... well, democrats in general... how many ways to say, 'underclass' high school dropouts?
A more moderate dem candidate will be tougher to beat.
As long as it's Cruz or Trump it's all good.
Go home GOPe...nobody likes you!
Like Biden? Please! If you can’t beat him, close up shop and send everyone home. As for a moderate Democrat, they went the way of the dodo.
After Palin went Coulter... Um no. We have a true conservative candidate.. Why would anyone support a pelosi plant like trump? Falls under.. Fool me once...
Biden campaigns ferociously and he will pull the blue collar / union dems right back in. He had the most fire in 2012 and far out performed his boss at the convention. I worry if he’s the nominee and either trump or cruz are the nominee. He strengthens their turnout and pulls some potential voters back. Seems weird because he’s such a dim bulb bit he knows how to fire up democrat voters.
maÂÂjor difÂÂferÂÂence in the votÂÂing choices of blue- and white-colÂÂlar evanÂÂgelÂÂicÂÂal ChrisÂÂtiÂÂans
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Oh yeah?
Gaffe machine Biden, fake Indian Warren, and Moonbeam Brown, those are the names I’ve heard tossed around as possible fill-in for the democrat candidate. Neither one of them are in the least bit “moderate.” All of them would be a continuation of 0bama, and would probably even be 0bama on steroids.
Yeah, he's easy to beat one on one.
Ask Robert Bork. Ask Sarah Palin. Ask Paul Ryan.
He's a ferocious campaigner, got elected to the US Senate at age 29 and stayed there for 36 years.
I reluctantly voted for Romney. I would vote for Peewee Herman before I’d vote for Hillary or Burned-Out Bernie. What the GOPe cannot understand is that with a seemingly endless procession of Romneys, (Ford, Dole, McCain) the people have finally had enough and even the admittedly loathsome Trump is better than another placeholder.
Don’t be fooled by his elections in Delaware. That was due to MBNA, DuPont, GM and Chrysler money. ALL are now gone.
As for the others, thanks to the SPGOP (Spineless, Gutless GOP), he got away with character assassination.
Yay is what I say to that news. The establishment, the Rinos are now in the same position the conservatives have been for decades. Conservatives have dominance and all the power and there is nothing the DC cartel can do about it, hah, hah!!
I tend to agree, tho who beats Sanders after HRC implodes due to sheer unlikeabilty and getting called out by Donald Trump - and how they position themselves in order to do it - is not obvious. Slow Joe? Can he actually run as Obamas third term, and win??? Who else, and how do they position themselves as not Obama, and also not Sanders?? Kerry is inside the Administration. Gore, maybe.That will change the dynamics of who will be the best rep candidate. A more moderate dem candidate will be tougher to beat.
Theoretically I agree. Warren, perhaps - but will she elbow Sanders aside?Warren has her “you did’t build that” meme going. The proper reply to which is,
It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.“you did’t build that” is not only criticism, it is criticism on steroids - sheer cynicism. Will Donald Trump figure that out? Who knows?I half assume that Trump will win Iowa and, having done so, will subsequently run the table. I would feel better if I thought Trump had Cruz intellect . . .
Quote is Theodore Roosevelt’s.
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