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We went through this same routine almost exactly a year ago and it was a big dud. NYC and Connecticut was completely shut down and we ended up with only a few inches in NYC proper.

It would be a major indictment of weather forecasting models if DC is not hit very hard by this storm. This isn't one or two models showing a direct hit: it is pretty much all of them, on every single run. If anything, they are underplaying the threat here. They all seem to be assuming low ratios, and if higher ratios are used, the models are predicting record setting amounts of snow (coupled with sustained winds >40mph). Even the few outliers have shown over a foot (and subsequent runs went back to the 2+ foot amounts).

The infrastructure in and around the metropolitan area simply cannot deal with what appears, at this point, likely -- 2-3 feet over much of the area. This may not be a national disaster or anything. But it is going to be a major pita for those who live around DC.

You may be right. Even if it hits DC area as forecast, it will be of historic proportions. The upside is that the timing of the storm is such that most people will be home for the weekend, so that crews can hopefully keep the roads clear.

Good luck down there. I'm glad most of it appears to be missing my area (NYC/CT).

If they get hit like we did in West Texas about a month ago, the wind strength will be very surprising for a winter storm. Will shock and awe. And that storm came up from Mexico