Posted on 01/26/2016 11:43:05 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
What is Donald Trump up to now? Just when you thought the Republican presidential race couldn't get any stranger, the unconventional billionaire candidate pulled out of Thursday night's GOP debate, sponsored by Fox News, the field's final meeting before the Iowa caucus.
Nobody toys with Trump, his campaign declared in a statement, not even Roger Ailes: "Mr. Trump doesn't play games."
"Whereas he has always been a job creator and not a debater, he nevertheless truly enjoys the debating process — and it has been very good for him, both in polls and popularity," the Trump campaign missive continued. But not only is Fox persisting in having someone they perceive to be biased, anchor Megyn Kelly, moderate the debate, the network issued a statement ridiculing and belittling Trump's complaints.
So Trump is going to take his ratings and go home. Or more accurately, to some other venue in Iowa. Trump "will instead host an event in Iowa to raise money for the Veterans and Wounded Warriors, who have been treated so horribly by our all talk, no action politicians." Which you can bet rival networks will be eager to carry.
The campaign spokesman for Ted Cruz, Trump's main Iowa challenger, called this decision "inexplicable" but there are actually three simple explanations for it besides personal pique.
First, it is fairly common for front-runners to avoid debates, although they usually do it with much less fanfare. (See Hillary Clinton, for instance.) They have nothing to gain from them and everything to lose.
Trump believes, not altogether unreasonably, that he is the main reason the primetime Republican debates have been getting good television ratings. If he doesn't like the rules or the moderators, why continue to give his opponents the additional exposure? He can certainly get airtime on his own.
Trump also believes, again not altogether unreasonably given the polls, that he is winning Iowa. In football terms, he is trying to run out the clock on a lead he thinks he can only lose if he makes a mistake. But instead of taking a knee, he's railing against the media and vowing to help veterans, two things that should rally rather than deflate his base.
Second, to switch sports analogies, this is reminiscent of promoting a boxing match. The pre-fight press conference devolves into trash talking and minor scuffling, ending with a promise to settle things in the ring.
Trump likely sees this as win-win. If Fox News capitulates in some way, he can reenter the debate with even greater popular interest. Will he duke it out with Kelly or take a victory lap if there's another moderator? (Though something would have to be done for the veterans and wounded warriors as part of the deal or this could backfire badly.)
If both sides stick to their guns and Trump doesn't debate, he will have once again shown his steadfast supporters that unlike your typical milquetoast Republican he doesn't cowtow to the media, that he will stand up to anyone and the silent majority will once again be heard. Don't forget that Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina primary in 2012 largely because he yelled at a couple debate moderators.
Third, with Marco Rubio now the only other candidate consistently in double digits in Iowa polling, Trump may essentially relegate Cruz to a glorified second undercard debate where he, rather than Trump, will be the one everyone wants to tear down. Trump will be out in the trenches helping veterans while Cruz is listening to John Kasich lecture him about the need for bipartisan compromise in Washington.
So in once again sparring with Fox, Trump may be crazy like a fox. But there are equally obvious risks to his decision.
First, Trump is taking a chance that all the other candidates will attack him without him having the chance to respond in real time. This is especially true of Cruz, who has been honing his attacks on Trump's conservative credentials lately. Trump has shown he is capable of fighting back, but he won't be there.
Cruz isn't the only candidate Trump will have to worry about. Rubio and Chris Christie have also had strong debate moments. Rand Paul has said it is his mission to show Tea Partiers that Trump is a counterfeit conservative printed out of thin air like a Federal Reserve note. In one of his New Hampshire ads, Jeb Bush mentions fighting Trump in a debate before saying he has a plan to eradicate the Islamic State.
It's also possible that in the absence of Trump, some other candidate will shine. Trump can hope that they will all look like poor George Pataki or Lindsey Graham carping at him from the undercard debate, but he can't be sure.
In fact, Carly Fiorina got a bounce from challenging him at an actual undercard debate and the timing for that kind of upswing would be better right now.
Maybe the candidate who does best won't talk about Trump at all. And the Hillary Clinton example also shows a flawed front-runner can avoid debates and still decline in the polls.
Second, what if Trump isn't really winning Iowa? The caucuses are notoriously hard to poll and, as Rick Santorum frequently reminds us, Election Day winners have occasionally come out of nowhere. The caucuses also put a premium on organization and while there are conflicting opinions about what kind of ground game Trump has, there is no disputing it is unproven.
Cruz, by contrast, is counting on people who have caucused before and are part of the coalition that has produced Iowa winners dating back to George W. Bush, who had evangelical as well as establishment support, and runners-up like Pat Robertson and Pat Buchanan. Jerry Falwell Jr. has a familiar surname but he doesn't live in Iowa. Steve Deace and Bob Vander Plaats, both Cruz supporters, do.
Third, what if instead of thinking Trump is a courageous media fighter people conclude he is thin-skinned or, worse, afraid to debate? Maybe he is intimidated by Cruz's sudden willingness to pick him apart on policy. Or maybe his beef with Kelly will make voters think the macho businessman is scared of a girl.
That's certainly the line of argument being pushed by his opponents, who are calling him Donald Duck. (Trump's name is Donald, he's ducking the debate and he can be parodied as the Disney character's relative Scrooge McDuck sitting on piles of money. Political humor is not quite an oxymoron, but it is close.)
There's also the question of whether Fox News and Megyn Kelly will really be seen as equivalent to the liberal mainstream media by the wider Republican primary electorate. Both are more popular with conservatives than the moderators Gingrich yelled at four years ago, although parts of the initial Fox statement that set Trump off were closer to National Review's anti-Trump symposium than anything most of his primary opponents have produced.
Fourth, what if Trump's voters don't like it if he doesn't debate? The Iowa supporters the Washington Examiner spoke to mostly wanted him there. Why dampen their enthusiasm right when the votes start counting?
Trump faces two additional pitfalls that don't rely on any of his assumptions about his popularity being wrong. Iowans could feel slighted by his decision to skip the debate, even though he will be appearing elsewhere in the state, undoing the benefits of backing ethanol subsidies and appearing with Chuck Grassley. After all, he'll be speaking to Iowans on his own terms rather than answering questions they may have.
The reality TV star could also rekindle doubts about his temperament among anti-Cruz establishment Republicans who are trying to convince themselves that Trump is the lesser of two evils. That might not lose him Bob Dole's kudos, but it could coax some Republican donor money off the sidelines and into a post-Iowa fight with Trump. Some swing voters open to Trump in the general election may react similarly. His sudden talk about cutting deals with Chuck Schumer and Cruz's Washington unpopularity suggests he has been giving such voters some thought.
For those of you keeping score, that's more risks than potential benefits. But as Trump would be the first to tell you, people like me have said he was making possibly fatal mistakes before and his poll numbers remain yuge as ever.
HOORAY Trump
Scott Adams’s analysis of Trump’s upside is superior to this one on Trump’s downside.
Trump has so much more to gain, so many more paths to victory, with his debate boycott.
I think maggot kelly will have the same reaction in her bed tonight.
Now that’s a visual I did not need...
Quite the conundrum for the Trump haters because... Trump always manages to turn everything he does into gold and I’m quite confident that it’s no different this time and that he’s only just begun.
I doubt we can say the same for the rotund one.
The favorite in elections do not want to debate.
They have nothing to gain.
But I do think in this instance, because this is a caucus and the first one, and this debate is for the need it of the Iowa voter, Trump may lose some caucus votes for this decision.
Assuming he actually does boycott.
For a good commentary on why Trump thumped Fox, read this excellent piece:
Yeah, Trump. Vote Trump.
But I do think in this instance, because this is a caucus and the first one, and this debate is for the benefit of the Iowa voters, Trump may lose some caucus votes for this decision.
I didn’t see the maggot’s interview with the big buy, but heard that she was ‘with’ him, as in non-confrontational. Also, when I was still watching her show way back in the day, I can’t recall the maggot ever shaking hands with any of her guests. Looks like the maggot likes mike.
He probably thinks he is far enough ahead in the polls that participating in the debate would be an unnecessary gamble.
Megyn’s thought after the handshake “Why is my personal bottle of hand sanitizer EMPTY, now that I’m desperate to decontaminate my hands!!?? Michael Moores’ thought; :That little keg of organic hand sanitizer was delicious!
I think I left enough for her this time. She always tastes like white roses!”
Why? All he needs to do is tell the American people the truth about the nasty shenanigans Fox was pulling and they’ll be on his side.
Not a good move Donald, unless this is a head fake.
Even then, he’s wasting time and voter passion with these shenanigans. It’s almost February; Show Time in the primaries.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.