Posted on 01/29/2016 10:43:08 PM PST by drewh
Even before Thursday night's Fox News debate, there was talk that Cruz might have "peaked too early" in Iowa. Cruz narrowly led the Donald in the typically very accurate and influential Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll released on January 13.
But since then the polling has shown slippage for Cruz, generally attributed to a combo attack from Trump on Cruz's Canadian birth and from the Branstad family (Terry, the six-term governor, and son Eric, the ethanol lobbyist) on his opposition to special treatment of the corn-based alternative fuel by the federal government. Even more ominously, third-place candidate Marco Rubio, the favorite of both the Republican Establishment and of many conservative Evangelical leaders, was beginning to creep up on Cruz in Iowa polls amid a major spending spree on TV ads by the Floridian.
Then came Thursday night's debates, where Cruz was almost universally deemed the worst performer and perhaps (depending on your assessment of the impact of Trump's absence) the big loser. Two particularly damaging moments were his trapped look when confronted with videos of his past statements seeming to support legalization of undocumented immigrants, and a shot of Terry Branstad chortling as Cruz struggled to explain his position on ethanol. And it didn't help the nerves of Team Cruz that Frank Luntz's post-debate focus-group report for Fox News was practically a Rubio rally
If the debate does move caucusgoers, it may not be reflected in late polls (e.g., the final Register-Bloomberg poll that will be released Saturday night) that were in the field before the event. More likely, the caucuses will remain a test of the turnout strategies of Trump, with his effort to expand participation deep into marginal voting segments, and Cruz, with his state-of-the-art organization focused on the most likely caucusgoers.
If Cruz wins, the debate stumble will be forgotten instantly. If he finishes second, and particularly a weak second, chins will be stroked and lost opportunities will be weighed. And if he somehow finishes behind Rubio, his candidacy is in very big trouble. Any way you look at it, it's been a long, strange trip for a freshman U.S. senator who would finish dead last in a poll of his colleagues.
Interesting (and fair I think) assessment. Thanks for posting this.
NY Mag is good on politics, they sort of keep it tabloid and real.
Cruz couldn’t hang on till the end, he almost pullled it off. Now he needs a huge snowstorm!
Started with Beck, IMHO.
RE> he needs a huge snowstorm!
I have thought for days that the natural elements could very well be a factor. Watching that closely myself.
I agree, Cruz shouldn’t have attached himself to an obvious manic depressive like Beck..
If Ted Cruz had suspended his run, and fully endorsed Trump say three weeks ago, he’d be a future president, or a supreme court justice, his choice, and it would have been absolutely in the bag... a sure thing. That he stuck it out tells me he plays checkers, not chess.
It looks like Rubio will be the last man standing against Trump, internal polling has him challenging Cruz for second depending on turnout
A few nights ago I had the TV on but my back to it. There was something on the news and a boyish voice started spouting off about politics, sounding very naive. I thought they were interviewing somebody at the local community college or something. I turned around and it was Marco Rubio.
1. He came out against Ethanol in a corn state.
2. He was letting Trump take all the heat and moving up, but now he has to face being a front runner.
3. Someone should tell him when something is NOT funny. I thought the “you’re a terrible surgeon” and the “I guess I’ll leave the stage” moments were awkward and didn’t work at all.
By contract, Huckabee has a nice personable good humor and can be funny. Fiorina can be biting and rip some zingers.
Cruz needs to lay off the comedy.
4. The RINO establishment gave up on Jeb and have moved to Rubio. So they have to bash Cruz to move Rubio to the second position.
Absolutely correct. You said it, it started with Beck.
Thought I heard Cruz is actually bringing Beck back this weekend! Beck had a second appearance on the Me Again Kelly
show, tonight, I read.
Beck must be big with the holy roller version of Evangelicals whom possibly he induces unconsciousness. Seems the only possible explanation that it is a religious lane arrival.
Cruz has campaigned exclusively for Evangelicals, whom he is now losing to Trump. Trump leads among Evangelicals in Iowa. The ones who are not push overs for pols on the trail.
Whatya think Ted?
Well, let me see if I've got this right.
We send out letters that say your neighbors are watching you, and you better go Caucus. Then we
put your neighbors informatoon in your letter, so you think they are getting yours.
Okay, lets run with it. That sounds great.
I’m surprised it took this long for the establishment GOP to circle around Rubio.
After Cruz announced he would eliminate the ethanol mandate, Trump announced he would not only continue it, but use the EPA to enforce the mandate to the full extent of the law.
Then the full-court press turned on Cruz.
Well America, Trump traded away 10% of your fuel mileage and the lifespan of your small engines and older automotive fuel systems for support.
Whatta deal!
But wait! There's more!
That little bit about the EPA means Trump, if elected will not only continue the Ethanol Mandate, but will keep the one agency which has fought hardest to destroy the energy producing industries of oil, coal, and natural gas.
So I guess the great recovery and making America Great Again will run on unicorn farts, windmills, and sunlight, because the main electricity generators will continue to be under attack.
Either that or the peasants will all get a chance to spin the wheel--like gerbils.
Trump will rip off these “loser” Branstads.
Why does Newsmax poll have him winning the debate and others have him 2nd to trump meaning Cruz won. Why can I understand the idea of a poison pill amendment?
Wait a minute! I thought you folks are always saying that Donald Trump can’t be trusted to keep a position? Now you are expecting him to keep this one? I listened carefully to his statement. He said he wanted to continue with the current law, and that the EPA should enforce the mandates that Congress put in the law. I took from his statement that this is not an issue to him one way or another. It doesn’t really matter. If Congress wants to change it, Trump will not object.
Now, to me, given the GMO state of corn in this country, corn is no longer fit to eat. The only safe thing to do with it is turn it into ethanol for fuel, and it is really not safe to grow it because of the adverse effects on the Bee population. But, again, this is something for Congress to decide. Trump is running to be the Chief Executive, not Prime Minister.
One minute you folks are complaining that Trump could be a dictator, and the next minute you are complaining when he wants to leave the law making up to Congress!
Please, pause for just a minute and ask yourself, “Am I thinking things through, or am I just being emotional about this election?”
Either way, not someone I think should be holding the reins. He said he'd keep an agency running that will preclude a resurrection of American Industry. You just can't do that without the electricity to power it and the fuel to move it.
The EPA (anti-fraccing, anti-coal, anti-coal fired power plants, just for starters) will stand squarely in the way of an industrial Renaissance.
i have a different take. Ted had no chance at beating trump so he took some desperate measure the past few weeks.
did they hurt him? yes.
did it matter? no.
As a Cruz lover I wish he didn’t do the hings he did the past few weeks, but he was NEVER going to make up the 25 points NO MATTER what he did.
eight years from now anything he did out of desperation these past few weeks will have been LONG LONG LONG forgotten.
trump will find he needs his help in the senate and we will have 16 year of good leadership.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.