Trump is 22 points ahead of Cruz in New Hampshire, where conservative Christianity is a total non-starter. It's an extremely socially liberal state, one of the first to legalize homosexual marriage.
There's a regional element at work. New England is culturally closer to New York than it is to Texas (those New York values). Cruz's best scenario in New Hampshire is to exceed expectations to generate momentum going into South Carolina, which he has a chance of winning. But I don't see how he gains more than a few points in New Hampshire, the evangelical bench isn't that deep. RINO Rubio is the real threat to Trump there.
“rump is 22 points ahead of Cruz in New Hampshire, where conservative Christianity is a total non-starter. It’s an extremely socially liberal state, one of the first to legalize homosexual marriage.”
Please stop with these “leads” and twitter follower counts. They don’t matter. Trump has more money, more casinos, more strip clubs, and more ex-wives. But he is not a conservative and he can’t win.
>> Rubio is the real threat to Trump there. (NH)<<
Agreed. After Iowa a lot of people are going to shift from Kasich/Bush/Fiorina/Christie/Paul to one of the top three, and Rubio is likely to get the lion’s share of those candidates voters when they switch.
That’s the value of the Iowa vote. It cuts through the polls and demonstrates where the votes really are. This will rapidly become a three man race.
“RINO Rubio is the real threat to Trump there”.
Trump in the RCP averages is leading Cruz by 16 pts in SC and leading Cruz by 23. No one is close to Trump in NH or SC. But with that said, all the republican estabishment in SC has either endorsed Rubio or Bush. Linda Graham has endorsed Bush. Gowdy and Tim Scott have endorsed Rubio. The days of the SC GOP being conservative are over. It is controlled by establishment types. Look for the worthless RINO Haley to endorse Rubio real soon. She wants a job just in case he becomes president. Hopefully the very conservative republican voters of SC will stick to their guns and cast a vote for the man they know can shake things up in Washington and that’s Donald Trump. Cruz can’t win NH and has no shot in SC.