Cruz had a great night showing not only he has support but that his team has strong organizational skills for a ground game.
I still have Trump my first choice with Cruz as a second. My fear now is Rubio. The establishment organizations in states like the SEC primary (many state primaries at once) and in large states coming later will be a real test for grass roots conservatives to overcome. It is doable but I put nothing past the GOPe. I expect Trump will win New Hampshire but if Cruz wins or finishes in second he will have almost unstoppable momentum for the SEC primaries.
If Rubio finishes second the GOPe will call in all its favors for Rubio in the South and Kasich, Christie, Bush, Fiorina, etc will drop out and endorse Rubio.
The SEC primary vote being split among Cruz, Trump, and Rubio is a bad thing. I am also suspicious of Democrats crossing over to create havoc in the nomination process in the Southern states as almost all are open primary states.
No worries. Rubio is a fast learner. He learned a lot yesterday from Ted.
3 tickets out of Iowa. Actually the results are not that surprising. Cruz had the ground game and 60% of the voting population were evangelicals and he was the clear choice vs. Huck or Rick.
Trump, 2nd is about right and only 3% off the leader. Rubio is gaining momentum and is a factor as the “pleasant†antidote to Trump or Cruz.
What’s surprising to me is the LOUD anti-establishment message from Iowa with these 3 (Rubio and Cruz are too young to be swallowed up in D.C. and thought of as establishment) and Jeb, Christie, Kasich (the real establishment) going nowhere. Also, the fact that a socialist can tie Hillary also supports the anti-establishment sentiment on both sides.
Up next, New Hampshire - not much can change unless Sanders doesn’t win big, then it’s all over for him. On the GOP side, can Rubio move closer to Cruz and does Trump still win. Lastly, is there room for 1 more GOP candidate? Only if one other has a huge finish which is unlikely.
Good post.