Posted on 02/03/2016 2:29:45 PM PST by GodGunsGuts
On Wednesday morning, two days after losing the Iowa Republican caucus to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, Donald Trump accused the Texas senator of stealing the election. According to Trump, Cruz’s campaign committed “fraud” by sending direct mail pieces to lapsed Republican voters and by spreading public reports that pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson might be dropping out of the race.
On the night of the Iowa caucuses, Ben Carson accused Ted Cruz's campaign of spreading false rumors about his campaign suspending its bid for the GOP nomination. Cruz’s people had been pushing a report that originated with CNN, which reported that Carson was planning on going home to Florida after the caucus instead of traveling to New Hampshire or South Carolina.
With his poor showing and diminishing numbers, it was not outlandish to deduce from this that Carson was toying with the idea of dropping out. Turns out he wasn't. It turns out Carson only planned to briefly return home so he could grab some "fresh clothes." Part of the incident can be chalked up to the ambiguous comments coming from Carson's amateurish campaign and the other part to Cruz’s campaign doing what campaigns tend to do: push narratives and stories that help them win elections.
But unless new evidence emerges, Trump's accusations of fraud and illegality are as absurd as his calls for a new election. Moreover, even if we believed Trump's charges, under no scenario does he win Iowa.
Ted Cruz didn’t win Iowa, he stole it. That is why all of the polls were so wrong and why he got far more votes than anticipated. Bad!
- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 3, 2016
Let’s say deception was afoot. Where is the evidence that the CNN story or the Cruz tactic changed the dynamics of the race at all? Carson's RealClearPolitics polling average was 7.7 percent-with some of the better polling putting him at 9 percent. One poll even had him at 10 percent. He finished the night with 9.3 percent of the vote. This seems right, and probably a little better than expected. Carson's numbers had taken a nosedive since peaking on Nov. 1st, and there was no evidence that a Carson surge was underway. Quite the opposite, in fact.
Even if we concede, for the sake of discussion, that Carson lost two or even three thousands voters to the rumor (which is pushing it), nothing changes. Even if Carson finished at 10 percent or 12 percent, the political outcome is the same. To believe Trump was cheated out of the race, you have to accept that Carson lost more than six thousand supporters, and all of them went to Cruz. Well, Carson pulled in a little over 17,300 votes.
In truth, it’s far more likely that any Carson defecting voters would have dispersed somewhat evenly among the other major candidates. Let's go big, though, and say Carson lost 15,000 supporters. According to a not-very-scientific NBC poll in early January, Cruz and Trump were tied as the second choice of Carson supports, at 26 percent each. Trump would have been in the same place. In a more scientific and more recent Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll, Trump was tied with Marco Rubio as second choice. Trump's favorability tracked way below that of every other candidate except Chris Christie. Considering the Rubio surge, it's far more plausible that Carson's lost votes would have gone to Rubio and pushed Trump into third place.
Now, I realize nothing is going to change the minds of Trump and his fans. Believing they were cheated out of Iowa is almost a philosophical necessity. The story helps Trump continue to latch onto to polls as unvarnished Truth and dismiss the idea that he has ever really lost at anything. But even if we believe Cruz cheated, none of the outcomes lead to a Trump victory.
VOTE CRUZ.
Exactly. So to some here, it’s ok for Hillary to cheat if there really is no net impact. No problem.
The problem of Iowa isn’t one of winners, losers or placement.
The problem is that Cruz cheated.
The cheating was wrong and should be addressed.
You are so correct. Everyone of the Cruz supporters wants this to be about Trump, but the issue is Cruz cheated Carson. So many here indicate it was ok to cheat Carso because “he wasn’t winning anyway.”
People continue in marathons even after the first person crosses the finish line to see where they honestly stood but Carson wasn’t given that.
And I simply fail to see how all these people who hate Trump so much for not being a good Christian as now so willing to say it is ok for Cruz as a Christian to lie if it fit the desired goal
It shows that Cruz has the capacity to cheat and Trump wants it stopped right now without going any further. I do not blame him.
St. Cruz has no steam going into NH. He has not gained one point from his sleaze.
Well, if he wasn’t cheated, he would have outperformed perhaps by 3 points.
I’m so happy you’re all into cheating. Warms the cockles of my heart.
Thank you. Your post says all I wanted to say but says it much more wisely.
Thanks for your assessment.
What I find facisnating is that Trump was even in the picture in Iowa based upon
their consevative passion, etc. I know the democrats have elected offices also but I
just never saw Trump even on the radar, so to speak.
To me Trump’s finish in 2nd should be considered a win for him, but maybe he doesn’t
feel that way.
Take care.
Ain't it the truth! I have never heard such whining, and bitter, shrill nastiness, from so many on the side whose candidate just won the first round. (What are they going to sound like when they start losing next week?)
Fighting hard against cheating is not unhinged. It is call justified anger based on a worthy principle of being honest. Cruz has to be watched closely going forwards because he has a propensity to cheat.
I thought that too as a an alternative strategy, but came to the conclusion that the counter effect of being viewed as a sore loser out weighed that.
Just like missing the debates, you got to wonder who is advising him on these matters.
Not on your life. Don’t like him. I did at one point but I’ve been dissuaded by his behavior and phony Christian act.
Wah! Wah! Wah!
Call it another immigration surge of the United States' own making. But unlike last summer’s crisis of children and families arriving from Central America, lawmakers aren't quick to call on this current group of refugees to go home.
October 2014 to June 2015, about 18,520 Cubans have sought entry to the United States through Texas’ Laredo field office of U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which includes ports from Del Rio to Brownsville. That’s compared to the 18,240 unaccompanied minors that were caught or surrendered to U.S. Border Patrol in the Rio Grande Valley from October 2014 through July of this year, according to CBP statistics.
If current trend holds, the number of Cubans seeking entry through Laredo will be about 24,700 this fiscal year. That's about 60 percent more than 2014's 15,600 and nearly twice as many as 2013's 12,445.
The influx of Cubans to Texas is a result of the Obama administration's efforts to normalize relations with the communist Castro regime, said Marc Rosenblum, deputy director of the U.S. Immigration Policy program at the Migration Policy Institute, a Washington-based think tank.
A sleazeball is someone that mocks the handicapped because they write means things about you.
I don’t lie at all. I tell the truth and watch the gnashing of teeth from folks like you.
Trumps anger is more than justified given the Cruz tactics of cheating.
Go ahead, elect another foreign born with an obscure past.
I want an American who loves this country.
No, its not ok, even WHEN Hillary does it. What I’m suggesting is that Trump and Carson are such pathetic candidates that they can’t weather such shenanigans then they should drop out. That goes for all the Republican candidates, Cruz included. If the Republic primary is to rough and difficult to navigate without injuring their sensibilities, then they will be devoured by Hillary in the general. I have no use for weak, whiny candidates. If you get swung at, fight back, and fight back hard enough to win. Trump and Carson and their supporters are making excuses for not winning. Excuses are like a_ _holes. Everybody’s got one.
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