Posted on 02/03/2016 2:29:45 PM PST by GodGunsGuts
On Wednesday morning, two days after losing the Iowa Republican caucus to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, Donald Trump accused the Texas senator of stealing the election. According to Trump, Cruz’s campaign committed “fraud” by sending direct mail pieces to lapsed Republican voters and by spreading public reports that pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson might be dropping out of the race.
On the night of the Iowa caucuses, Ben Carson accused Ted Cruz's campaign of spreading false rumors about his campaign suspending its bid for the GOP nomination. Cruz’s people had been pushing a report that originated with CNN, which reported that Carson was planning on going home to Florida after the caucus instead of traveling to New Hampshire or South Carolina.
With his poor showing and diminishing numbers, it was not outlandish to deduce from this that Carson was toying with the idea of dropping out. Turns out he wasn't. It turns out Carson only planned to briefly return home so he could grab some "fresh clothes." Part of the incident can be chalked up to the ambiguous comments coming from Carson's amateurish campaign and the other part to Cruz’s campaign doing what campaigns tend to do: push narratives and stories that help them win elections.
But unless new evidence emerges, Trump's accusations of fraud and illegality are as absurd as his calls for a new election. Moreover, even if we believed Trump's charges, under no scenario does he win Iowa.
Ted Cruz didn’t win Iowa, he stole it. That is why all of the polls were so wrong and why he got far more votes than anticipated. Bad!
- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 3, 2016
Let’s say deception was afoot. Where is the evidence that the CNN story or the Cruz tactic changed the dynamics of the race at all? Carson's RealClearPolitics polling average was 7.7 percent-with some of the better polling putting him at 9 percent. One poll even had him at 10 percent. He finished the night with 9.3 percent of the vote. This seems right, and probably a little better than expected. Carson's numbers had taken a nosedive since peaking on Nov. 1st, and there was no evidence that a Carson surge was underway. Quite the opposite, in fact.
Even if we concede, for the sake of discussion, that Carson lost two or even three thousands voters to the rumor (which is pushing it), nothing changes. Even if Carson finished at 10 percent or 12 percent, the political outcome is the same. To believe Trump was cheated out of the race, you have to accept that Carson lost more than six thousand supporters, and all of them went to Cruz. Well, Carson pulled in a little over 17,300 votes.
In truth, it’s far more likely that any Carson defecting voters would have dispersed somewhat evenly among the other major candidates. Let's go big, though, and say Carson lost 15,000 supporters. According to a not-very-scientific NBC poll in early January, Cruz and Trump were tied as the second choice of Carson supports, at 26 percent each. Trump would have been in the same place. In a more scientific and more recent Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll, Trump was tied with Marco Rubio as second choice. Trump's favorability tracked way below that of every other candidate except Chris Christie. Considering the Rubio surge, it's far more plausible that Carson's lost votes would have gone to Rubio and pushed Trump into third place.
Now, I realize nothing is going to change the minds of Trump and his fans. Believing they were cheated out of Iowa is almost a philosophical necessity. The story helps Trump continue to latch onto to polls as unvarnished Truth and dismiss the idea that he has ever really lost at anything. But even if we believe Cruz cheated, none of the outcomes lead to a Trump victory.
Made a difference where Candy Carson spoke.
The point is it cheated Carson. Cheated. In my book, cheating should be a disqualification. None of us would accept this if a Democrat did it.
Hate to break it to Gentle Ben, playing the victim card in a political primary is akin to bringing knives to a gun fight.
Under no scenario does Donald Trump win Iowa.
******************
The fact that Trump came in a respectable 2nd in Iowa is a big win. Trump should have
never been on the front burner of most of the caucus goers but rather tail end charlie.
But there’s plenty of proof Cruz is sleazy and cheated Carson out of votes. Do you deal in reality?
It will be an article of faith among the Trumpkins that “Cruz cheated”. To believe otherwise would be to accept that The Donald was (gasp!) a loser! And that heresy cannot be tolerated. Any Trumpkin to accept such blasphemy would be excommunicated from the Church of the Don. So even if they proved beyond a shadow of doubt that there was no dirty tricks and that no votes were changed, the still would not accept it. It is a matter of faith and trust to them, and facts cannot be allowed to deter them.
“Cruz did some hinky stuff. None of it IMO made Trump lose. But the shaming letters were really bad news and he did try to torpedo Ben Carson. None of it speaks well to character.”
****
As a Cruz supporter I also believe the mailer was in poor taste. However I haven’t seen a single word from Trump that speaks well of his character.
If that’s politics and you accept it, don’t complain when we get Hillary in office and she cheats your candidate in 2020.
“The notion that even one voter changed their vote because of this is ridiculous.”
Why? You come to the caucus planning to vote for Carson. A Cruz operative tells you that Carson has dropped out. So you vote for someone else or walk out the door. Either way, votes were changed.
So if I tell you your guy is going home, vote for my guy, you do it? Come on.
The sTrumpets are busier ‘n a cat in a liter box excusing Trump and accusing Cruz. Can you imagine 4 years of enduring their populism, being bombarded daily with the current lists of whom to hate and whom to adore currently??? We watched the movie “The Black Book” last night and Trump and Palin remind me of Robespierre and Saint-Just.
(Trump wants to sue Cruz for committing politics.)
******************
You may not have meant it as humor but I think that is very funny.
I don’t know about you, but one foreign born pres is enough for me. Do we really want a guy from a family of Cubans from Canada as POTUS? I want an AMERICAN.
And what about this?
If current trend holds, the number of Cubans seeking entry through Laredo will be about 24,700 this fiscal year. That’s about 60 percent more than 2014’s 15,600 and nearly twice as many as 2013’s 12,445.
The influx of Cubans to Texas is a result of the Obama administration’s efforts to normalize relations with the communist Castro regime, said Marc Rosenblum, deputy director of the U.S. Immigration Policy program at the Migration Policy Institute, a Washington-based think tank.
How does Cruz feel about THIS?
Trump is going to drop out
Vote for Cruz. Are you convinced?
Please provide such proof. And don't just point out that the Cruz campaign used the CNN report to try to win over Carson voters. That is not cheating - that is what the caucuses are for, trying to get the other guy to support your guy. Unless they were knowingly using false information, it's not even unethical or immoral, let alone illegal.
My advise to you is to start following tiddlywinks tournaments, for fair play. Politics may be a little rough for your tastes.
And hitting the abuse button, or otherwise pinging JimRob to settle every squabble that they almost always initiate!
Cruz is my first choice, and Trump has been my second choice, based on his stance on national sovereignty.
Trump is starting to wear on me, though. It seems like a simple, “congratulations Ted, see you in New Hampshire” might have been the way to go. You want to beat the other guy, but not alienate his supporters, since you’re going to need them down the road.
I heard that the Cruz campaign even tossed the “Captain’s palm tree overboard!”
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.