Trumps ground game in IA was -10 points.
If we split that he is down to 26 points. Also this poll has 8% undecided. Bravo Sierra.
We need a likely voter screen, which would have no undecided voters, or very little.
I think some of the undecided voters are either Cruz/Trump supporters.
If Cruz picks up 4 of the undecided and 5 of Trump’s softies, he is at 23% or only three points behind Trump.
I would take that split going into SC.
Ah, the power of positive thinking.
Alas, there's NO WAY Cruz finishes above 15% in NH.
NH is not kind to the evangelical candidate and has never been. They only have like 13 Evangelicals in the entire state.
And, note, it was Ted Cruz who decided they would be the most courted in his campaign. That decision is what set up the NH dynamic.
The risk for Cruz is if he appears to walk back his on-the-sleeve faith to pander to secular voters in NH. That could cost him dearly in SC. And beyond.