The biggest loser: The USA.
None of these guys are qualified for the job.
Polls are for fools.
Rubio > Trump. If they take Trump out and replace him with Rubio, at least we won’t have a fascist nationalist with zealous, irrational minions as president. A constitutional conservative who can articulate conservative principals, on the spot, without needing focus groups, would be a lot better. However, Trump is the most evil of the evils running, and between Bernie/Hillary and Trump, the former are less evil than the latter.
Rubio has the homo arrest to deal with.. and Ken Mehlman’s gay FL GOP-e crowd will not be able to innoculate him against that in the South.
Consolidate around Cruz is the answer.
Caucus’s by their very nature are voodoo and indicative of nothing.
Pretty good analysis. One thing came to my mind this morning and that is for all predictions that the establishment will gang up for Rubio and stick with him or take him out later in favor of Jeb/Christie; the establishment has a very bad record of understanding voters and how things will turn out for Republicans this primary. It is similar to how they botched the last several presidential elections. They aren’t the brightest but that doesn’t mean they are not the meanest when attacking their own.
One state, forty-nine more to go. The importance of Iowa is way overstated. Get back to me ten states from now. The picture will firm up by then.
Thank you.
Agree with every word. Wish I had written it.
I am voting for Trump Tuesday. I was ready to vote in July 2015.
But, if the emperor is naked, I’m sorry I didn’t see it. And if it’s Little Marco who points it out, I’ll be even more sorry.
Excellant analysis.
Your points on Trump are well taken. Trump doing things his way didn’t work in Iowa but most of us expected Cruz to win there for reasons you point out. And you’re right, Cruz fans will not see the light until the guy is horribly discredited because they see him as a religious leader more than a politician. Baring a Jim Bakker episode they’ll ride him straight into the ground.
NH and SC will tell the tale on Trump. Fight on!
Dude that was not wet in the slightest.
I think you are right.
Very nice analysis. I agreed, but you also raised points I hadn’t thought of. I hope it’s ok that my post isn’t as sober as your thread. I’m on opiate pain reliever today after an emergency dental trip last night.
I this IA changed little other than Rubio now has some ground to stand on when he tries to argue the establshment should rally around him... Other guys need to leave and enforce and donors should come to him... He outperformed, largely by trying to frame himself as the second coming in the final weeks... If he comes out of NH strong his argument that the others need to leave gets that much stronger... If however, he comes in 4th or 5th in NH as other establishment candidates have up on IA to put a line in the sand at NH this arguement dies quickly and the long slow thinning will continue.
As to IA polls, I don’t know why ANYONE puts faith in IA polling... I don’t recall off the top of my head anytime polling has gotten IA right. Secondly, I don’t know why anyone would have expected a Trump win in IA.. The format and electorate makeup naturally made him a long shot for a win. Had he won IA outright I would have viewed this as an insane upset and at that point and the scope of a Trump victory would be beyond the scope anyone was considering. Trump did well in IA, but I never felt he was the underdog for a win there. Too many fundamentals against him there.
With all that said at present I don’t thin IA has changed much in the long game, though I do agree Trump needs to refocus on NH.. I get the cheating tweets to steal the news cycles back but he need to pivot forward not back to keep things going.
If Trump underperformance majorly or loses NH then we have a major change in the optics of this race. If Rubio beats solidly the other establishment candidates things get a bit more interesting. If Jeb or someone else tops Rubio the field doesn’t thing as much.
If however Trump performs in NH well, he runs the table.
Time will tell, but I don’t thin IA results themselves have changed much of the optics. If NH comes in with anyone other than Trump at the top the entire races optics open up.
When it comes to “moral” candidates, I think we’re all concerned about the big things, abortion, adultery, marriage, not about “campaign ethics” if there is such a thing. We’re concerned about honesty in keeping campaign promises, and Cruz has already proven that he’s done that in his Senate career. When people talk about looking for an ethical, trustworthy candidate, the type of campaign mailers or phone calls someone makes are not even on the radar. This is super small ball, only being hyped up by Cruz haters, of whom there are many thanks to Team Trump and Team RINO (Fox, etc.).
The polls were probably no more wrong then when lawless Obama was reelected, the Democrats probably stuffing the ballot boxes to get revenge on George Bush 43 for ”stealing” the election from Al Gore.
Obama Likely Won Re-Election Through Election Fraud
But this time around, the ”ballot box stuffing” allegedly came from the Cruz campaign, his campaign being accused of lying to Carson supporters at the last minute that Carson was quitting the race.
And if what is being said about Cruz campaign turns out to be true then I will very reluctantly be voting for Cruz.
So although the polls were arguably wrong, they were possibly not wrong for the reason that the Cruz campaign possibly wanted everybody to think.
No, it proves the polls are underestimating Cruz, as I suspected. He is going to do even better against Hillary than the polls show.
All of this about Trump's childish character has long been known to those willing to have studied his background. Honestly, it only takes an hour or two. He's a first rate open borders whore, and always has been. No, what took a hit was your mistaken understanding of his business acumen and personal character. He thought he could get away without the expense of a ground game. He was wrong. In New Hampshire he's still wrong. That strategy won't work until he gets to Super Tuesday, but after showing his obvious petulance as a loser, he may not get that far intact.
Trump does not have the kind of cash he says he does, especially after the Resorts bankruptcy of 2014. Virtually all his assets are illiquid. He sure as hell can't sell or hock "goodwill." Hence, Trump can't afford the cash for a ground game and still buy advertising time without hocking everything (as he's been known to do by the way). He had to do this with tweets and free air time courtesy of the MSM or else to the well hat in hand no longer capable of pretending he can't be bought.