Posted on 02/05/2016 10:08:07 AM PST by Kaslin
I have, since last September, written several times that I think the 2016 campaign comes down to a race between Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. The loss in Iowa after leading in the ten polls preceding the caucuses has taken the wind out of Donald Trump's sails. He is refusing to invest in New Hampshire and will not buy expansive data to micro-target voters.
I suspect Christie, Bush, Kasich, and Fiorina fade. Ben Carson is already fading. Despite Carson's attacks on Ted Cruz over urging Carson supporters to stand with Cruz, the facts are that Ted Cruz's campaign relied on CNN reporting to tell Cruz's supporters that Ben Carson was getting off the campaign trail after Iowa. Carson's campaign has cut fifty staffers and is already announcing more cuts after New Hampshire. Carson will be out soon. He is using Ted Cruz as a way to stay on life support, but his campaign is over.
Trump, as long as he stays in, is more an opportunist who will say and do anything to get elected. Trump was recently endorsed by former Senator Scott Brown, who won a special election in Massachusetts, lost re-election, then moved to New Hampshire to try to get back to the Senate. Trump has been hopping party to party since the '90s trying to get himself into power. The endorsement was fitting. The endorsement, like Sarah Palin's albatross around Trump's neck, will not save him.
That leaves Cruz and Rubio as the last men standing. Both have substantial war chests and heavily funded super PACs to run ads and build ground game operations. Rubio continues to get endorsements from political leaders, but Cruz continues to pick up sizable support from people mad at political leaders.
If voters feel like the 2016 election is the last election to save the American experiment, Ted Cruz really is their only option. If voters feel like things are coming to an end in this country without drastic action, they really do not have a choice between Rubio and Cruz. They have only Cruz. Cruz is the disruptive candidate. A voter who feels like the end is near without drastic action has to take the gamble on Cruz, who still has a good chance to win.
Rubio, on the other hand, is the candidate for voters who think the best days are still ahead of us regardless of what happens in 2016. Democrats may fear Rubio as a candidate, but the base of the Democratic Party does not fear him like Ted Cruz. They think they could wait out Marco Rubio, even after eight years in power, and see few of their advances surrendered.
Washington's lobbyists think that Marco Rubio will not be a disruptive force to them. They know Washington will still be mostly the center of people's lives to a greater degree with Marco Rubio than with Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz will burn Washington to the ground and throw lobbyists on the street. Marco Rubio will strategically raze parts of Washington, putting fewer lobbyists in danger than Cruz. At least that is the thinking, and it is the thinking that is reflected in the attacks on both men.
For critics of Cruz, he cannot win. The reality is that Cruz can win, but if he wins those lobbyists and politicians attacking him will be out of a job. The Washington elite have every incentive to stop Cruz because he absolutely would be transformational, though his path to victory may be harder than Rubio's.
For critics of Rubio, he will not go far enough. The reality is that Rubio may have an easier time winning, but his critics do not believe he will go far enough and do as much to fix the problems in Washington.
Cruz and Rubio would both be conservative to varying degrees. What is at stake between the two is how easy their election would be and how transformational their presidency would be. Rubio backers are looking at the path to the White House. Cruz backers are willing to take a gamble on the slog of a general election campaign so they can see Washington rent asunder.
Right I’ve heard that before.
Whether you’ve heard it before or not is completely irrelevant...it is in fact the truth, which you’ve admitted...
Hilary Clinton loves opposition clear consciences...the clearer, the better...
“I fell for that crap last time and held my nose for Romney, my nose-holding days are over.”
Then get ready for President Hillary.
Exactly right. The evidence says conservative platform is the only way to beat the democrats' gibsmedat agenda.
You'd think we'd wanna try it again.
I'm not from FL., but I've read that after Rubio was elected he stopped being involved with the TEA party in FL, even though they were critical in getting him elected. Do you know if there is any truth to this?
What difference will it make - when your moderate loses - again - you’ll blame conservatives regardless.
“Quite frankly, any Pub candidate will have a hard time changing the Electoral College map...
He will have to sweep Ohio, Florida, and Virginia, as well as some other smaller tossup, like Iowa...
Republicans have to determine who is best positioned to do that, and vote for him/her...to do otherwise is, well, counterproductive...”
I’ve been thinking the same thing for some time. The demographic make-up of the Reagan coalition of the 1980s no longer exists, and we haven’t yet figured out what to replace it with.
Neither Cruz nor Rubio can win a national election. And I am factoring in Hillary Clinton being hauled away at some juncture.
you are postulating that Cruz/Rubio cannot defeat Bernie Sanders in a general election...? Sanders is the one individual who gives the Pubs the best shot at changing the EV map...
So be it.
The moderates are the ones with a terrible track record of losing the general.
Oddly enough, that is who the voters voted for in the primary. They only have one vote. I guess the answer is vote carefully.
Shhhh, don’t disturb tubby Erik who has the wisdom of the ages....
I’m laughing at the TDS’ers who will flock to this like moths to a flame.
“Then get ready for President Hillary.
So be it.”
Do you really think we would have been better off here at home and in the rest of the world the past four years, if Romney had been elected rather than Obama?
Whata choice!
Two Cuban imposters fighting for Kenyan’s job.
Both not Natural Born Citizens as prescribed by founding fathers.
What we need is female transgender muslime black Mexican communist born from test tube to no parents and in space.
Internacionaaaaalaa......
I don’t think there is one chance in a million that they will allow Sanders to be the nominee. Remember, the Dems have retained their super-delegate arrangement, which controls their nomination process.
You've never been more correct.
Sure Obama looks much worse, but I think the end result is pretty much the same. Look at the Republican Congress.....Romney would have just been an extension of that.
Absent Rubio’s “Gang of 8” and his lax immigration policies in general, consider the following....Cruz is rated “A+” by Gunowners of America. One of only four US Senators to hold such a rating. Rubio is rated “A” by GOA. So we could have a President (Cruz) and VP (Rubio) both highly rated by a strong Pro-Second Amendment organization. Just think how THAT would roast the chestnuts of the antis!
Paul Ryan is the quintessential moderate.
you’ll blame conservatives regardless.
Sir, I blame people who forgo the logical course in a critical political election for the sake of perceived differences, that when compared to the agenda of the opposition, are indeed petty...
but just so you can feel better about things, I fully acknowledge that a moderate, just as well as a connservative, can easily lose this upcoming election...
There are things I appreciate about Ted Cruz. And I will be glad to support him if he wins the nomination. I am from Texas and know his story well. He did more than not join the old boys club. Some of what he did was considered to personally damage individuals and the party. I agree. It is one thing to stand up as London as you are not standing on the throats of your friends. It I’d going to be a bigger problem than you think.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.