Posted on 02/09/2016 7:47:33 PM PST by Boomer
I really don’t understand the delegate apportionment process.
Trump doubled Kasich but only gets one more delegate.
However, right now with 75% of the vote in, more people voted for a Republican than a Democrat.
Washington Post is showing 13 and 9 for Sanders and Clinton.
Okay. I think I see a little bit of where I went wrong. They were posting the totals between Iowa and NH instead of just NH.
These two links helped.
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ia/
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/nh/
Then I saw this which shows Clinton with 429 and Sanders with 50 then I got confused again. Sheesh. How can she bet that far ahead, delegate wise, when they barely won IA and lost NH?
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/parties/democrat
There are 32 delegates: 8 are chosen statewide in the primary, 8 are chosen in Congressional District 1 in the primary, 8 are chosen in Congressional District 2 in the primary, and 8 are for political insiders (they call them "superdelegates", but I don't have to call them that).
Even the delegates chosen in the primary aren't allocated in proportion to the vote, but according to arbitrary cutoffs. As a result:
There are still the 8 political-insider delegates ("superdelegates"). These aren't formally committed to any candidate. You can expect all or most of these 8 to go for Hillary unless the party hierarchy pulls its support for her. I think 6 of the 8 have already announced that they are for her.
If all 8 of the insiders vote for Hillary, that brings the range to somewhere between 15 Sanders - 17 Clinton at the low end to 12 Sanders - 20 Clinton at the high end. (If not all the insiders vote for Clinton, it may not be quite so extreme.)
So much for democracy — Sanders is getting around 60% of the vote, but he'll probably get a minority of the 32 New Hampshire delegates.
I'm tempted to call this popcorn time! The more divisiveness among the Democrats, the better. But it's not really a good thing for the US for a major party to work this way.
Maybe false alarm? They just haven’t updated the information to their website yet
At a glance, General is going to be a very close in this state. I think 200k Democrats and 200k Republican showed up to vote during the primary
When I said: "If Sanders gets more than 56.3%...", I meant: "If Sanders gets 56.3% or more..."
It is pretty close, though.
In the 2000 NH primary, Bush came in 2nd to McCain. Al Gore beat Bill Bradley. Yet in the general, Bush won. When you look at the numbers, Bush got almost as many votes as Al Gore did (within 4 or 5 thousand). McCain got about 35,000 more votes than Al Gore.
I think there is something to that when predicting the general election winner. It is not just win/lose but it is also the actual number of people who dragged themselves out in the snow to cast a vote. There are many party loyalists, but in a state like NH, not all that many.
Thank you. I must have misread another post.
Regret the error.
Thank You! That helped quite a bit and I agree; what a rigged system. It still boils down to what the head honchos of the party wants and not the voters which is, as we all know, not a system which represents the people.
OTOH, If the DNC shoves Hitlery down the Outer Party’s throats, it’s 2008 for them, and there are lots of disgruntled ‘rats, resulting in our gruntlement.
I want to see them at each other’s throats. So far it’s been Hellary assuming she’s entitled.
A CNN commentator said she would get 10 delegates to his 13.
Apparently they set up a threshold and then they split. After that they divide.
Bernie will be roasted in the south.... unless he can get black votes.
Because the U.S. Department of Labor did the math?
Interesting. Bernie right now has something like 45,000 more votes than Hillary. Oh well. As long as liberals are cheating liberals, I guess what is it to me.
he gave her some of his cause he didn’t want to go to H
We could be looking at 1968 riots at the Dem convention.
We can hope. LOL. Only it would be more enjoyable if we didn't have our own fractures to worry about.
Establishment delegates.
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