Posted on 02/09/2016 10:01:30 PM PST by Greetings_Puny_Humans
Just shows that your brain breaks if you set one foot into any class above Bachelors-level.
He won more of the Republican vote than the 1st, 2nd and possibly even third placers combined (maybe off by a point or two). Whether you want to call it a plurality or a majority or whatever, Trump clearly dominated it to the same degree as he did independents. 70 percent of the total vote, by the way, also claimed to be conservative, with 25 percent of them calling themselves "very conservative." Trump dominated them too. 30 or so percent reported as Moderators, and, of course, Trump dominated them as well. His only real threat was with the moderates, where Kasich had 28 percent and Trump only 32 percent of them. New Hampshire only had 30 percent of its Republican voters identify as moderate. You will not be having this many self-report as such in South Carolina.
If the GOPe candidates all coalesce into one candidate, Trump might have some trouble in more liberal states, but then Trump so dominates the conservative vote-- and the conservative vote so dominates the primary process to begin with-- that it probably won't be a problem, and Trump's numbers will probably even grow even bigger among conservatives once they realize that they must unify behind the strongest conservative in the race as these other people drop out.
According to CNN’s exit poll, Trump leads college graduates by 9 percent, not just one percent. NewsMax, which GeronL didn’t even bother to provide a link to, was probably quoting the worst numbers possible it could find, but even CNN had better results for Trump.
And again, with a Republican primary built for more moderate candidates, Trump dominated to such a degree that even if multiple GOPe candidates left and ALL their votes went to Bush or Rubio, Trump would either be tied or still ahead at current numbers.
That actually works in our favor.
Also, there are many, many former Republicans who just couldn't do it anymore. Conservatives just not Republicans.
Additionally, what does conservative even mean anymore? There is nearly NOTHING left to conserve. It's gone. Lost.
There’s a clever split-out of post-grads. Remember, sensible STEM workers tend to be conservatives, and we have little-to-no use for post-grad education. “Bachelors and done,” is our motto.
Those in post-grads are either (a very small handful) of STEM research types, or the vast majority of “Social Justice Warrior” fields.
Two-thirds continue to vote for someone else. The question is, will these votes coalesce behind someone else, or go to Trump? I expect that they will gravitate to someone else.
As if being liked by senators and having senate endorsements is supposed to be persuasive?
I just did the math:
If we just take Republican voters (your best scenario, with the independents all gone), and if Kasich goes, Bush goes, Fiorina goes, Christi goes (and he's going), and all their votes go straight to Rubio:
That total number is 37 percent to Trump's 35, only over Trump by 2 points.
Considering how unlikely such a scenario is to begin with (Christi actually does appeal to conservatives, and won 4 percent of "very conservative" and 9 percent of "somewhat conservative", and if almost the entire field drops out, we have to assume that Trump's numbers do not increase in any way), Trump is doing very well indeed.
Well - it depends on what the goal is. If your goal is to pass legislation, it is helpful. If your goal is to prevent being undermined and stabbed in the back for four years, it is also helpful.
If your goal is to become a tyrant or dictator, then the point is moot.
If Rubio falters, the question becomes whether his supporters would break for Trump or Cruz. The tension between the traditional values voters and the culturally liberal RINO's may be the decisive factor.
I didn't even do my own math, which would have removed "very conservative" voters from Christi and other candidates, since they weren't all filled up with moderates. And if we don't do that, your best scenario only has Trump losing by 2 points-- where we assume his numbers do not change at all as 4 or 5 people drop out.
So please do not misrepresent what I'm telling you to save your irrational point of view here.
Do the Cruz supporters bolt for Trump? Unlikely; Trump is poison on the social issues and big-government activist on economics
This is a ridiculous and baseless assertion. Trump dominated with the most conservative voters in New Hampshire. Why would the remaining numbers be shy about voting for Trump? You are basically assuming that every single one of these voters are CruzBots who actually buy the BS from team Cruz about Trump secretly being for abortion and the like.
In the real world, they will be voting for Trump.
Wonder how Rubio cheerleaders Rush and Levin will spin last night? Will Rush still give his new favorite “conservative” a pass and make every excuse in the book for him finishing in 5th place.
I don’t listen to them anymore so I will never know lol, but would appreciate any reports by folks who do still listen.
Dang, boy. Spit them sour grapes out. They’re making you talk like a fool.
“...Spit them sour grapes out...”
What “sour grapes”? Check my posting history and you will see I didn’t expect Cruz to do better than 4th in NH.
But back to the question you dodged, “by feeling confident enough to exclaim “they’re toast” after a blue-state primary goes to a blue-state RINO, at least you’ve finally found something that makes you feel good about yourself. Now be honest - isn’t that what is most important to you?”
I’m right, aren’t I?
Well, if we look at this in purely mathematical terms, no candidate in a nine person race should get more than 11% of any demographic.
The fact that Trump got 29% of the over 65s, is impressive. That’s just under three times what he should be expected to receive.
That's a damnable lie, and every Cruzer on FR knows it.
It is not possible to be a conservative, much less "very conservative" and still support Trump.
Naw, you’re definitely drunk on sour grapes. It’s why you came out of left field with the silly taunt about me “feeling good” about myself.
It’s plain for everyone to see that you’re projecting, due to your realization that we’ve probably seen Ted’s high water mark. You’re pissed at the substance of this article, which destroys the false construct of Saint Raphael, the conservative’s conservative.
Now spit them sour grapes out and take a cool drink of reality.
So I take it you are still dodging. Trumpbot status quo. Got it.
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