This model has served me well over the years. Once you see Erik Estrada or some other lame A-hole on ads and infomercials hawking the "next big thing" in real estate, it's time to get ready for another real estate collapse.
My rule of thumb is to buy the most hated asset class of the time and hold onto it for the long run until it is beloved and sell into that. Gold has been hated for years and years now, and some gold miners have been even more hated, selling below their cash reserves as if gold were headed to $700-800 range! Buy low, sell high. It should be simple, but it’s amazing how many people thought the stock market was too risky to invest in when the DOW had crashed to 7000, but started throwing all their hard earned money after it had more than doubled! Same thing is happening with gold and gold stocks right now. Some gold companies are selling for pennies on the dollar, and people keep saying how risky they are because of their PAST performance!