Posted on 02/12/2016 4:48:29 AM PST by St_Thomas_Aquinas
So says Bill Kristol, citing "a political operative whom I've known a long time and whose integrity I trust" and who's currently working with an organization, presumably a Super PAC, in SC. Is this data credible? Well, when we're bearing down on a key vote and we're starving for numbers in a state that hasn't been surveyed by a major pollster in three weeks, let's just say it's credible enough for a post:
Here's what the pollster found:
Trump 32
Cruz 26
Rubio 20
Bush 10
Carson 7
Kasich 2
Rich Lowry is hearing of similar numbers in another private poll...
The last poll of South Carolina to place Cruz within single digits of Trump was in mid-December. His smallest lead in January was 14 points. If you're looking for a reason to believe this data, though, that's easy: Pre-Iowa polls of SC didn't reflect that Cruz is now, more or less, the choice of evangelical Republicans. It stands to reason that he'd creep upward towards Trump in a state like South Carolina where the GOP electorate has many born-again Christians. If you're looking for a reason to disbelieve, that's easy too: Trump was polling at an average of 36 percent in SC in January and now, coming off his blowout in New Hampshire, he's ...four points lower? If that's borne out by other polls of SC this week, it'll be strong evidence that Trump really does have a ceiling of around a third of the party even when he's got "momentum" from a big win.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
Yeah... what is it with the absolute lack of polling from South Carolina? I thought for sure that this morning, on the third day since New Hampshire, I’d find news of public polls.
Or we can focus on no-name poll results released by a ‘friend’ of Bill Kristol.
You should be worried: Not only did Trump dominate moderates, liberals, "slightly conservative" voters and cross over votes, he also beat Cruz among New Hampshire conservatives and Evangelicals.
If there are no polls, the rule is that they’re probably too favorable for a certain someone to publish.
As a Cruzer, it seems like the main realistic path to victory at the moment, other than Trump tripping on his on tongue, is it becoming a 2-man race ASAP after Super Tuesday. I believe that Trump has a ceiling of about 45-48 pct, and as candidates drop out (as two more recently did), Cruz will catch up. These numbers seem to verify my suspicion. We are down to 6 candidates now, from 17.
(Gilmore doesn't count... he got 12 votes in IA, and fewer votes than one of the 28 insane choices in NH, Andy Martin.)
“This could explain the Trump campaign’s decision to play nice, but it may be too little, too late. “
LOL!!!
The desperate plan of the Cruz camp that we will win because “evangelicals” will vote for Cruz like blacks will vote for Hillary, because he does a good Jimmy Swaggart act in a church, and Evangelicals will reflexively vote for anything like that.
Now you have to tout a poll done by who the heck knows. Not because it reflects reality, because it good propaganda to post on FR.
But it “sounds about right”.
Just too good to not post twice!
Then there’s this from today over at the Hill
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/269229-poll-over-4-in-10-back-trump-nationwide
Donald Trump has over double the voter support of any Republican White House hopeful nationwide, according to a new poll.
Over 4 in 10 Americans are backing Trump’s campaign after his victory in New Hampshire’s GOP primary last Tuesday, according to a Morning Consult survey released Friday.
Trump earns 44 percent support from registered Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) comes in a distant second, with 17 percent.
“Lol, he drew the same crowds in Iowa and LOST.
The circus always brings out the crowd.”
He drew the same in NH and won.
But yeah, cherry pick. Those people were obviously “godless liberals”. That’s the spin you guys rushed out fast, after you all were sure that the big momentum out of Iowa was going to “surprise us all” in NH.
-— Not surprised it’s close. They like conservative candidates in SC. -—
I see two important variables: the crossover Democrap vote and whether Carson’s voters abandon him.
It looks like the D’s may stay in their primary this time, since they actually have a race.
It looks like Carson’s supporters are sticking with him for now, but that might change as the election approaches.
And then there is the debate...
That he dominated the liberals I have no doubt. He is their dream candidate. If the choice is Trump or Hillary, the left wins either way.
Trump got crowds like that in New Hampshire too.
And won.
How many delegates to Cruz need to catch up?
Actually, Trump's numbers in Iowa were always in the thousands, never in the tens of thousands. That said, Cruz stole the election by stealing Carson's voters just to eek out a win by 6 thousand votes. Trump beat him in New Hampshire by 70 thousand votes.
-— Yeah... what is it with the absolute lack of polling from South Carolina? -—
I don’t get it either. Maybe it’s more expensive than I thought.
And we all know who whipped who in Iowa... And how a proper term to describe Trump afterwards... Petulant and whining about stolen votes was... We let’s just say it rhymes with rich.
Kristol’s tweet Tuesday morning stated: “Biden confirms to Obama at lunch today he’s running, announces at U. Delaware tomorrow. You can feel the Joementum!”
Read more at http://mobile.wnd.com/2015/10/bill-kristol-tweet-biden-confirms-to-obama/#cQb3TUu7S7THL1FL.99
Trump DID dominate the liberal Republican voters. He also dominated the conservative and evangelical ones too.
Politicians have “rendered their verdict” on America for the last 40 years, and you’re worried about a little fun with a word? Ever heard the parable of the those who strain like they’re producing a camel, but produce a gnat? Guess where that bit of scatalogical humor comes from? Question for you- Has Cruz tithed in the last ten years? Answer- no. Think SC will “punish” him for that?
Understood. It could easily be utter BS... but since it confirms my suspicions, I'll put some stock in it until the vote comes out.
Iowa also polled a Trump win that didn't happen in the caucus. This exact result has occurred in HALF of all the states so far!!!!! ;)
(And if it does happen again, 2 out of 3, the race suddenly becomes much less inevitable. Other than Trump's mouth, this is the main hope for half of Freepers.)
So now the press has gone from reporting polls, which are iffy enough, to reporting unattributed rumors of polls?
Does Cruz tithe? Ever? Answer for ya- NO.
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