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Ted Cruz Has Two Big Problems
National Review ^

Posted on 02/20/2016 10:43:13 PM PST by springwater13

72 percent.

That's the number of Republican voters in South Carolina's primary that identified as evangelical or born-again Christians, according to exit polling. That's an eye-popping, record-shattering figure: It was 65 percent in South Carolina's 2012 GOP primary, and 60 percent in 2008.

With three-quarters of the electorate identifying as evangelical, it was shaping up as a great night for Ted Cruz, who launched his campaign at Liberty University and has boasted of building a "firewall" to dominate the March 1 southern states because of their ultra-conservative, religious composition. South Carolina represented the first test of that theory.

Cruz failed. Among South Carolina's evangelical Republican voters, Trump won 33 percent, Cruz won 27 percent, and Rubio won 22 percent. And while Cruz did carry the 38 percent of "very conservative" voters in the state, it wasn't enough to finish anywhere close to Trump. Nor was it enough to beat Rubio, whom he finished roughly 1,000 votes behind.

This spells trouble for Cruz on Super Tuesday. He remains better-organized than any other candidate across the south (which should make a difference, considering both Trump and Rubio benefited from having impressive field operations in South Carolina). But there's no question Cruz's inability to carry the evangelical vote here portends poorly for him in states of similar ideological and demographic makeup.

That's a big problem for Cruz on March 1. But he faces even bigger challenges beyond then. Both Trump and Rubio performed evenly with non-evangelicals in South Carolina: Trump took 30 percent, and Rubio took 22 percent. But Cruz saw a significant drop-off, winning just 13 percent of that group. This echoes Cruz's performance in Iowa (33 percent with evangelicals, 19 percent with non-evangelicals) and New Hampshire (24 percent with evangelicals, 8 percent with non-evangelicals).

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida; US: Iowa; US: New Hampshire; US: New York; US: Ohio; US: South Carolina; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: 2016election; bencarson; canadian; christianvote; cruz; election2016; florida; ineligible; iowa; jebbush; johnkasich; marcorubio; newhampshire; newyork; ohio; sc2016; southcarolina; tedcruz; texas; trump
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To: butterdezillion

Most of the bad information was done by Moody at CNN. It was his tweets that everyone was seeing and retweeting. I saw those tweets and thought Carson was done too.


141 posted on 02/21/2016 12:44:00 AM PST by 1035rep
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Comment #142 Removed by Moderator

To: abigkahuna

Cruz’s campaign never said Carson was dropping out of the race. They said he wouldn’t be campaigning in NH or SC, which is what the CNN report at 6:43pm (which was transcribed and posted) said.

So what, exactly, is the slimy lie that Carson was so incensed about? I’ve asked that of many, many Freepers and the only thing that can be brought up is an email where the Cruz team said that Carson would be making a big announcement later in the week - which was not in the CNN report. I suspect what happened was that Carson’s NH team all quit to join the Cruz campaign the day before the IA caucus because Carson told them he was going to quit that week, and the Cruz campaign was told that by those people. But Carson didn’t want the IA voters to know he would be quitting so he claimed he wasn’t and then because of the stink he made about the Cruz team he changed his mind about quitting that week.

The whole thing made me see Carson in a whole different light. I had liked him before that.


143 posted on 02/21/2016 12:44:46 AM PST by butterdezillion
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To: 1035rep

CNN lied in their follow-up reports, claiming they had said in their broadcast that Carson wasn’t going to go DIRECTLY to NH. The transcript clearly shows they said he wasn’t going to NH even after being in Florida.

If anything, CNN and Carson are at least as slimy as Cruz’s people in all this, but that doesn’t fit the narrative. The purpose was to libel Cruz, truth be damned.

That “truth be damned” attitude is what disgusts me. It’s gonna get this nation killed.


144 posted on 02/21/2016 12:49:13 AM PST by butterdezillion
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To: JediJones

Oh please. Santorum was weak in the 2012 primary, despite winning a small handful of early states. He never had the real sort of traction and momentum he needed to be truly competitive.

You’re a numbers geek who’s missing the bigger sociological paradigm shift that’s occurring right before your eyes. For anyone looking, it’s been plain as day since July of last year.

The people of this country are rejecting professional politicians, and demanding a proven, world class executive type, to sort out the dysfunction and corruption in Washington. It’s time we had a real man in charge. The very survival of the nation depends on it, and no freshman Senator has the skill set or executive experience to manage it.


145 posted on 02/21/2016 12:50:29 AM PST by Windflier (Pitchforks and torches ripen on the vine. Left too long, they become black rifles.)
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To: Windflier

Well said.

From my POV in 2012 it seemed like Santorum was basically a spoiler candidate that divided what could’ve otherwise been a viable anti-Romney vote.

At this point, Cruz may (unintentionally) end up doing the same in 2016 and effectively derail the anti-Rubio vote.


146 posted on 02/21/2016 12:55:11 AM PST by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State)
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To: butterdezillion

Ted Cruz is the one who bore false witness.

No one ever reported that Carson was suspending his campaign. No one told CNN that, CNN never reported that.

Except for the Cruz campaign. They reported it to voters during an election while voting was underway.

That was a lie.

He then lied about it again a couple of days ago at a press conference in South Carolina where he repeated the same line of BS that you just mentioned.

His people are on audio recordings. It’s very clear what they did.

Don’t blame the victim because you want to elect the perp president.

Just don’t do it.

Cruz chose his course. To win at any cost is to lose.


147 posted on 02/21/2016 12:56:41 AM PST by chris37 (heartless)
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To: butterdezillion

You are correct CNN did lie. In their “BREAKING NEWS” they said they were getting the info from Chris Moody. He was the rumormonger that started it. I saw the tweets. When he said that Carson was leaving before the results were in and that he would not be going to NH or SC I thought he was finished.


148 posted on 02/21/2016 1:00:39 AM PST by 1035rep
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To: butterdezillion

I am saying that I am not faulting Cruz...Not saying that Carson does not have a reason to fault Cruz. Personally, I think the Cruz campaign was a bit overzealous in jumping to conclusions based upon the news report. Trump has used it to beat Cruz over the head with because its politics nothing more....Carson has his own reasons. It is simple as that in my opinion.

Its all politics and positioning nothing new, nothing nasty its just the way things play out.


149 posted on 02/21/2016 1:03:38 AM PST by abigkahuna (How can you be at two places at once when you are nowhere at all?)
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To: Catsrus

OK, he called it dirty tricks and deceit. See the video at http://time.com/4203730/ben-carson-ted-cruz-caucus-dirty-tricks/ . And later on he gave the “By their fruits you shall know them” quote, suggesting that Cruz is not Christian.


150 posted on 02/21/2016 1:05:34 AM PST by butterdezillion
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To: chris37

Show me where the Cruz campaign ever said that Carson was “suspending his campaign”. They said he was taking a break from campaigning based on the CNN report saying he wouldn’t be going to NH or SC. And that IS what the CNN report said, and it IS what happened with Carson, unless you consider a prayer breakfast a campaign event which raises a whole different set of questions.

To be a “lie” it has to be factually incorrect and the person has to know it is factually incorrect. Show me where the Cruz campaign said something they knew to be factually incorrect. I’ve heard the recordings you mention, and did not hear anything that was factually incorrect. Quote the factually incorrect statements to me.

The Cruz campaign accurately said that the CNN report had noted that Carson would not be campaigning in NH and SC. I’ve posted the transcript clearly showing that’s what they said. So again, tell me this “lie” that you accuse Cruz of saying at a press conference in SC.


151 posted on 02/21/2016 1:12:11 AM PST by butterdezillion
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To: springwater13

Not all Evangelical Christians are conservatives. What drivel.


152 posted on 02/21/2016 1:16:14 AM PST by txnativegop (Tired of liberals, even a few in my own family.)
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To: 1035rep

I don’t think CNN initially lied. I think someone from Carson’s team told CNN he wasn’t going to campaign in NH or SC. And he didn’t. His campaign website listed no campaign events for anywhere. I think CNN reported what they had been told, and they speculated that if you want to be President you don’t act that way. So the Carson team tweeted that Carson would go to FL for a change of clothes but he would go back on the campaign trail. All Carson did, though, was a press conference suggesting that Cruz isn’t Christian, the prayer breakfast (is that making prayer into a campaign event? using religion for ulterior motives?...), and the debate. He never did go to NH or SC, as far as I know, except for the debates. So Carson’s people told CNN the truth and CNN reported the truth initially.

But what I was talking about was after Cruz apologized, when CNN said that Cruz INACCURATELY said that the CNN report said Carson wasn’t going to NH or SC, when their report actually said he wasn’t going DIRECTLY to NH or SC. The transcripts clearly show them saying that after Carson went to Florida he was not going to go to NH or SC. So CNN tried to twist it to look like Cruz was wrong. He wasn’t, and the video and transcript clearly show it. CNN lied, to try to capitalize on the “Cruz is slimy” meme that’s still sneered around here so triumphantly.

The whole thing makes me sick. I’m about ready to say, “Screw this country; we’re not worth any of this trouble anyway.”


153 posted on 02/21/2016 1:21:24 AM PST by butterdezillion
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To: abigkahuna

Yeah, it’s politics. The only one who ever apologized was Cruz, for not correcting the story later in the evening when they found out that Carson had said he was still going to campaign (which he didn’t end up doing after saying he would) and he’s the one being called “un-Christian” and “slimy” by the “good Christian people” here on FR.

Makes me sick.


154 posted on 02/21/2016 1:26:26 AM PST by butterdezillion
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To: All

http://aattp.org/flashback-rafael-cruz-calls-son-ted-cruz-an-anointed-king-responsible-for-the-end-time-transfer-of-wealth/


155 posted on 02/21/2016 1:37:32 AM PST by patriot08 (5th generation Texan ...(girl type))
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To: butterdezillion

And Cruz should have apologized, (which he did) It was overzealous campaign activities. It is something that other campaigns can use to beat you over the head. (Which they did)...All is fair in love and war they say.

If you and I were in similar positions we would probably do the same. Anything for a bit of advantage in a tough campaign.

Actually I think Trump, the non-politician is having a ball with it all. He might well figure this is how one campaigns by slinging this and that...afterall that’s all we see as non-candidates, right? Nice guys finish last in an election.

As for the other members of FR, I can’t speak for them, but everyone is supporting their candidate so things get very excited and heated. Hey its the silly season..you know..

I support Trump, you might very well support Cruz....whatever. in the end you and I still have to put food on the table and go to work and somehow continue on with our ives the best we can no matter who is president.


156 posted on 02/21/2016 1:48:04 AM PST by abigkahuna (How can you be at two places at once when you are nowhere at all?)
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To: Utmost Certainty
Cruz is basically a spoiler candidate at this point and should drop out so we don't get Rubio

I've got news for you. As an evangelical who cares about 43 year of American child sacrifice (abortion), Rubio is on my radar, Trump ain't.

157 posted on 02/21/2016 1:52:46 AM PST by Theophilus (The GOPe are dealers. The Marxist Democrats are duelists.)
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To: butterdezillion

No, I’m a Cruz supporter and very proud of him for that. I’ll only vote for Trump if I have to. Insulting each other can only be detrimental to discourse and to this site.


158 posted on 02/21/2016 2:09:59 AM PST by skr (May God confound the enemy)
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To: butterdezillion

Great candidate accountability. Sounds like so much of the rest of our country...”it’s not my fault”. Ever think Cruz may just not be that appealing of a candidate outside of FR?


159 posted on 02/21/2016 2:18:10 AM PST by ripnbang ("An armed man is a citizen, an unarmed man a subject)
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To: skr

Thanks for clarifying. I also am fed up with the GOPe. Not decided on who to vote for but one of my concerns with Trump is that it sounds like he’s promising to schmooze and work deals, and that’s the very thing I’m sick of. Being non-PC is a good thing, but if your plan is just to do a better job of what’s already screwed us, that PLAN seems pretty PC even if the words aren’t.


160 posted on 02/21/2016 2:26:34 AM PST by butterdezillion
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