Just the same, I believe it is likely that Cruz will win his home state of TX by something approaching ten points.
I have averaged five of the major polls in Texas as shown on Real Clear Politics from Feb 23rd to Feb 25th. I have found that such a analysis gives a better picture of things.
It is an average of those five polls for anyone to see at the Real Clear Politic site.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
I just averaged them together.
From the average of those five polls, Cruz is up by over 9 points in Texas.
And Florida, Rubio's home state, is on the 15th, two weeks after supper Tuesday.
It may be very clear to Rubio by then what is going to happen in Florida...in fact, IMHO, given the trends, it is becoming more and more clear now.
I changed my tracking of the polling data after the NV caucus to track the actual votes alone, now that we have four contests behind us and a BUNCH more coming.
Here is what that data shows:
As I say, the trends are pretty clear at this point...Super Tuesday may change that and deflect Trump's rise little, particularly in Texas and a couple of other places...but we shall see.
But, if Super Tuesday shows no deflection, and the same steep inclines for Trump in terms of Delegates and popular vote continues...then the GOPe's hope for a brokered convention will be dashed, as well as any real hope of stopping the Trump juggernaut.
I am just being honest here. I am a Cruz supporter...but this is what the numbers are showing.