Posted on 03/06/2016 8:37:46 AM PST by SoConPubbie
One of two things happened in Louisiana. We know that the margins between the top three candidates in the state shifted dramatically between votes cast by absentee ballot and those cast on Saturday, the day of the election. That means that either that: 1) A candidate had a very strong get-out-the-vote effort, or 2) There was a broad shift in attitudes about the candidates.
When we looked at this Saturday night, it wasn't clear which was the case. Now, we have a better sense.
If we look at the votes in counties* for which we have data (culled from the AP's initial and final vote tallies), you can see that Ted Cruz gained strength after the absentee vote. The darker the county, the higher the vote percentage. Cruz's map gets darker. Donald Trump and Marco Rubio's get lighter -- the latter, dramatically so.
Another way of looking at it is the percentage-point shift between the final percentage in each county and the percentage from the early totals. Cruz's map is all blue, all increased. Rubio's is not.
One more way of looking at it, showing the shifts more clearly still. Anything above the line means an improvement between the final or day-of percent and the absentee totals.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
If Cruz was so great he should have taken 50% plus in Texas. That’s not a favorite son.
Wouldn’t change things. Like saying you prefer scoring in the 4th quarter rather than the first.
The only thing that matters is the score, and Trump came out of the last two weeks with 400 delegates, 32%, with only 29% of the states in. He’s ahead of schedule. Cruz is 24%, or well behind schedule. Moreover, Cruz has to win 65% of ALL the remaining 1600 delegates to win. Really?
What Trump has not gotten nearly enough credit for this entire campaign is keeping the main thing the main thing. Defeat #2. That’s all that matters. Now by how much, not #3, not whether or not you “overperformed” or “underperformed.” Just the delegates, ma’am.
By doing so he knocked down Carson when Carson was #2, then earlier Fiorina when she was all the “buzz,” and now that Cruz has emerged as #2 he just keeps winning, maybe not overwhelmingly like some want or expect, but just fine enough to keep those delegate totals moving the right direction.
We’ll see how Cruz does in Michigan, Ohio and Florida.
Don’t you think Rubio’s pretty much done?
Agree with you. I was only commenting on the Louisiana results.
Yes, except that more conservatives vote Cruz. The SC exit poll showed that.
Washington Post = Establishment = Desperation to weaken Trump victory
Yep don’t forget New York and Mississippi.
Sure. Except that one doesn't "keep surging to defeat", when one wins the election day vote.
True. The pundits are saying Cruz may take Mississippi. Makes me sick to hear that.
Maine is "right next to Texas" too?
Another way of looking at it is that Trump supporters were so eager to vote for him that they couldn’t wait for election day to come, so they voted early. You know, just in case they had a heart attack or something, they wanted to make sure they got that ballot in.
I highly doubt it.
It’s an open Primary where Democrats and Independents can cross over and vote. Trump leads among Independent and Democrat crossovers (Trump leads 20% of Dems)
Trump has won every OPEN Primary but Texas.
I predict on Tuesday.
Trump wins Mississippi, Michigan and Hawaii.
Cruz wins Idaho.
It’s a wonder he won at all given the onslaught of attacks before, during and immediately after the debate and right before the primaries. No one haset to go after Cruz with the same vitriol and hatred. And Ted didn’t have Fox News running millions of dollars in attack ads against him. So kudos to Trump for withstanding the pressure.
I don’t know about Maine. I was only commenting on Louisiana. I’m from Mississippi (right next to Louisiana), so I know how folks in the South think pretty much.
Looks like Humpty Trumpty fell off his “run the table” table and suffered some hairline cracks in his thin shell. Maybe, if we’re lucky, the rest of the country’s Conservative voters will come to their collective senses and let the Vulgarian get the egg on his face that he so richly deserves.
Yea, no one else has been attacked for a month and 2 political parties a handful of billionaires and the media is completely focused on tearing one person down. My opinion: EVERYONE should be concerned that this is how the country now functions.
Trump: 382
Cruz: 300
Rubio: 128
Kasich: 35
Carson: 8
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