Little to no polling outside of Michigan, so a volatile day.
Michigan has over 10% undecided and Idaho, with it’s single poll, has 30% undecided.
Cruz does very well among last day deciders. So he could close the gap dramatically and come in a solid second in Michigan and win Idaho.
Mississippi will probably run like the rest of the south with Trump winning by a slim to comfortable margin.
No polls in Hawaii, but very few GOP are there (7 out of 51 in the State House, 1 out of 25 in the State Senate). The only GOP State Senator just endorsed Cruz a couple of days ago.
In the Cruz surge continuing? We’ll see with the final delegate count. If Trump gets less than 70 and Cruz gets more than 50, Cruz solidifies the narrative that he is the only legitimate candidate besides Trump.
The big thing about Idaho is it is winner take all if you get 50% plus. If Cruz can get to 50% in Idaho, he could actually come out ahead in delegates on the night even if he loses the rest of the states because all the rest are proportional.
In Michigan, you’ve had Cruz and Kasich going for the same anti-Trump vote. I don’t think anyone can figure out this Chess game, but let me try this idea for a possibility: Kasich and Cruz split the vote that Trump doesn’t get. Trump would prevail in that scenario.
It was never really a Cruz surge as that implies he rose on his own merit.
Cruz’s over performance was due to two things, one Rubio dropped like a rock and Cruz got those votes and two Dr. Carson dropped out and those mostly went to Cruz.