460 to 462 after tonight. But if Trump sweeps all of the winner-take-all states and runs 50% of the proportional contests in the next week, he still will only add 350 to his total. That would be 810, and that is great, but he would have to sweep them all to get there. Then the numbers start to slow down.
Pennsylvania (71), New York (95),and California (172) are biggies, but those are only 338. Add those to 810 and he is still about a hundred shy.
Now if he sweeps next week, the momentum will be on his side and he could pick up the winner-take-all states of Arizona (58) and Wisconsin (42) and seal up the win.
But... again, he has to run the board next week to clear his path.
Impossible? Not at all. A cake walk? Nope!
Missouri (52) could go for Cruz (Kansas, Oklahoma, and Iowa are neighbors and went for Cruz) and Ohio (66) could go for Kasich. If that happens, then it’s another 118 delegates Trump has to come up with.
With the collapse of Rubio, there has to be a new look made at all of the races. And of course, every week brings new dynamics.
We will see.
Thanks for the explanation. I don’t think Trump has it locked up. I am still leaning that he could do it.
I certainly wouldn’t say your are wrong though.
I have tended to give Trump too much credit so far, so I could still be doing it.
The biggest misconception is that Missouri and Illinois are WTA next week.
They aren’t.
MO has a 50% floor for WTA. Otherwise, it’s winner by CD (5 delegates each for each 8 CDs) and WTA for the 12 remaining statewide.
Illinois is direct election of delegates for CDs (18 CD x 3) and then WTA for the remaining statewide (17 delegates).
North Carolina is strictly proportional.
Only Ohio and Florida are true WTA.
I’ve been on the edge of my seat for six months.
Little telling what will happen.