Posted on 03/08/2016 8:31:05 AM PST by SeekAndFind
We’re 12 hours away from knowing whether the “Trump fade” hinted at by last week’s results is real or not, but if you’re looking for poll data to support the thesis in the meantime, you can’t do better than this. I can’t think of a poll taken this year, state or national, that’s looked worse for him. He’s still ahead but Cruz is now within single digits and every important trendline is steering in the wrong direction for him.
I’ve never believed that he has a hard ceiling, for the simple reason that the subtraction of candidates from the field should mean the addition of new votes from that candidate’s supporters to Trump’s totals. And yet, 40 percent looks suspiciously like a ceiling:
I remember when Trump was going to get half the Jeb/Carson/Christie vote and cruise to 45 percent. pic.twitter.com/KYaULO1rSM
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) March 8, 2016
Candidates may be dropping out (Ben Carson was only the latest) but it might also be that anti-Trump sentiment is spreading quickly enough outside Trump’s base that those new votes I mentioned are getting harder to come by.
Favorable ratings also indicate an increasingly tenuous standing within the party. In early January, Republicans clearly gave Trump more favorable than unfavorable reviews, 60 percent to 39 percent. That has narrowed to a 53-46 margin, with negative marks at their highest level in Post-ABC polling since Trump entered the race. His positive ratings also trail Cruz’s 64 percent and Rubio’s 63 percent.
The Post-ABC poll finds that more than half of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents think Trump is dishonest, does not understand their problems, lacks the right experience, and does not have the right personality and temperament to be an effective president. By contrast, more than 6 in 10 Republicans say Cruz is honest, empathetic, and has the right temperament and experience; similar shares say Rubio has the first three qualities, while half say he has the right experience.
In a hypothetical head-to-head test of strength between Trump and Cruz, Republicans say they prefer the senator by 54 to 41 percent. Rubio is a narrower favorite in a one-on-one test against Trump, with an edge of 51 to 45 percent. The survey did not test a Trump-Kasich face-off.
Dip into the crosstabs and you’ll find that, among non-Trump and non-Cruz voters, Cruz wins … 72/17. In other words, if the field clears, virtually all of Rubio’s and Kasich’s support goes to Cruz over Trump. No wonder Cruz suddenly seems keen to finish off Rubio in Florida by starving him of conservative votes there; if these numbers are right, Cruz could beat Trump the rest of the way even if Trump has Florida in his back pocket.
Another killer data point: The #NeverTrump contingent within the GOP may be larger and more durable than thought.
He has a bare majority of his own party saying they’d be satisfied with his nomination and nearly a third say they’d be “very dissatisfied,” twice as many as say so for any of the other final three. Among the wider electorate, his favorable rating is 30/67(!) and, as noted in the excerpt, he’s collapsed on key “presidential” qualities:
To put that in perspective, even Hillary Clinton outpolls him on honesty, finishing with a 37/59 rating. Cruz is at least 15 points better than Trump in every metric; Rubio is at least 15 points better on three of the four, finishing nine points ahead of Trump on having the right experience. The only way you get down to 25 percent or so on questions like this, obviously, is if a significant part of your own party is giving you thumbs down in addition to all of the poor ratings you’re getting from voters in the other party.
And yet, as bad as all of this is for Trump, I wonder how much worse the numbers might be if Republican voters started to view him as unelectable. Right now I think they don’t. Trump’s led wire to wire in the primary, he has the financial resources to blitz Hillary in the general election in theory, he’s constantly talking about winning over centrist Democrats and expanding the party, etc. His whole image is grounded in the perception that he’s a winner. For the average low-information voter, why couldn’t the consummate winner win the election in November? WaPo’s numbers are a strong argument why not. As is this piece yesterday by Megan McArdle, who says Trump is far too poor to effectively fund a general election campaign by himself:
I direct you to his personal financial disclosure form, which said he had about $300 million in cash and marketable securities. That’s a lot of money! Stunningly, however, it is not enough money to run a major presidential campaign, which now clocks in at around $1 billion…
Of course, maybe people just aren’t bothering to send money because he says he’s self-funding. Maybe in the general election, he could plead for funds and they’d open their wallets. Only … part of his appeal is that he’s so very rich that he doesn’t need donations. How long does that appeal last if it turns out he doesn’t have that much money in the bank and needs donors just as much as other politicians do?
He could maybe mortgage some of his interests, borrowing a billion dollars to fund a campaign. But this seems … unlikely. For one thing, by the most generous non-Trump estimates of his net worth, that would mean mortgaging about a quarter of his assets for a near-certain loss. Or mortgaging less but spending down all his liquid assets.
He could accept public financing as the GOP nominee, although that won’t get him anywhere near parity with Hillary. Small Republican donors will contribute, but look back again at those numbers showing how many are dissatisfied with the thought of him as nominee. He may have less of a donor base than other Republican nominees have had. Wealthy Republican donors will also help him out, but there too he might be at a comparative disadvantage as some of them balk at supporting him. Some might even end up backing Hillary. Trump would be forced to make up the difference with Clinton with lots of earned media, at which he’s done an expert job in the primary — except that it’s conventional wisdom among Republicans that the media will be much harder on him this summer and fall when it’s Hillary Clinton, not Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz, who stands to suffer if they aren’t. I still think Trump can win but it’s not a stretch to believe he’d have a tougher time of it than Cruz, Rubio, or Kasich. The more Republican voters come to see that too, the more his lead will slip. As I say, we’ll have an inkling sometime tonight.
Exit question: If Trump had prepared diligently for the debates and had spent, say, $50 million in attack ads against Cruz and Rubio, would the race be over already?
My bet, it probably is.
The GOPe is not even close to dead. I would argue they're the reason for this decline.
If you're a Cruz supporter, the problem is Cruz doesn't have a path to 1237 delegates. If he's in the race and continues to draw delegates, it will be a brokered convention where the Establishment again will choose the nominee (enter Romney).
If you're a Trump supporter, the same might also be true, although Trump does still have a path.
It was a smart play by the Establishment, likely their only play with the collapse of Rubio.
Still, if you're someone who realizes the total corruption of our current political system and hope to return our governing process back to what the Constitution dictates, our only hope this election cycle, whether you like him or not, is Trump.
The owner of this website has some advice to you. Take a deep breath, calm down, read it, and think about the advice he is giving you.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3405593/posts
We are going to have a great candidate and we’re going to crush Hillary in the election!
March 5, 2014 | Jim Robinson
Posted on 3/5/2016, 6:03:33 PM by Jim Robinson
Folks, we need to keep our eye on the prize and settle down. We are going to have a great pro-America candidate whether it’s Cruz or Trump, and we’re going to crush the godless America-hating Marxist/fascist felon, Hillary Clinton, in the general election! And that’s just a fact.
And that’s the bottom line.
We are finally going to secure our borders and start helping repatriate the illegal aliens to Mexico or where ever they came from. And we’re going to tighten up and start enforcing our immigration laws, including ending sanctuary cities and possibly ending anchor babies. Both of our leading candidates agree on that.
And we’re going to repeal Obamacare, cut taxes, cut spending, cut regulations, cut the government, cut the debt, cut the global balonyism, cut the P/C crap. We’re going to cut the EPA, cut the education dept, cut a whole lot of unconstitutional stuff out of the federal government and let the states control education and other issues that the constitution reserves to them. Both of our guys agree on that.
We’re going to pay more attention to trade deals and get better deals for American industry and American workers for a change. We’re going to bring back capital, bring back manufacturing, bring back jobs! Cutting taxes, cutting government, rolling back regulations and replacing socialism with capitalism will see to a booming Reaganesque economy and that will generate prosperity and jobs. Cruz, Trump and all of us agree on all of that.
We also agree that we want pro-life, pro-family, pro-constitution, pro-America judges. Both our candidates agree with us on that.
We also want to rebuild our military and make it the most powerful force for peace and defense on the planet. We emphasize peace through strength and do not use our military for nation building or social engineering. We understand it’s for blowing the crap out of terrorists and war mongers who wish to do us harm. And both of our candidates are on board for that.
Hillary stands for the exact opposite on all of the above!!
This primary is going to be over soon and we’re all going to have to make a decision. No matter whether Cruz gets it or Trump, we must unite behind OUR candidate and the AMERICAN side and do all we possibly can to get him elected and send the unindicted felon and all around America-hating, liberty-hating traitor, Hillary Clinton to her well deserved next term—in jail.
I say we drop the vitriol against each other and against our leading candidates as of now. We’re only serving to harden the hearts of our natural allies against us and from this point forward, the hit pieces will not change minds or votes, but will possibly feed the enemy propaganda machine.
Lighten up and bring some joy back into our lives and peace on our board.
We’re among friends here.
Thank you all very much.
God bless.
An anti-Trump article (not a poll) by (an) "Allah Pundit"...Imagine that.
Explain why this poll is weighted 32% Dems-25% Rep and 32% Indy voters? There no data to suggest that is a valid polling sample of the current electorate. Why overweight the poll with more D responses?
Not all polling is equal. How they decided the sample mix changes the results.
Having you of all people repost this, just cracks me up. Do you even read the things you post.
I agree people are getting tired of the attack ads. They just shut them off and pay no attention. They will support their candidate on the merits. There may be some impact on Trump but not much. Romney made a mistake inserting himself into the campaign. He is already considered a loser and has minimal credibility. We tried it his way and it failed. This time we are going a different way.
“Not all polling is equal. How they decided the sample mix changes the results.”
I know, but considering an MSNBC poll more legit just because it shows Trump in a more positive light? Come on now.
“LOL! Looks like Cruz has peaked in RCP avg.”
When does the “RCP average” have their primary?
It would be interesting to review the daily events and/or Trump statements of the day for each step up on that chart. Also, I cannot remember the exact date of the Paris and San Bernardino attacks but I suspect it was around the time that the Ben Carson line starts to drop.
You of all people should take a deep breath, calm down, actually read the post and actually start applying it to your postings.
Your responses proves the point that you are one of the chief offenders that article was directed at.
If it gets to a brokered convention and Romney is picked it will be the end of the Republican party as we know it. Lots of Republicans will leave the party. Trump would probably run third party and there would be no chance for a Republican win. If the Democrats capture the White House for another 4 years they will complete the transformation of America into a socialist state.
I suppose they figure why do the dirty work of destroying a serious republican threat to Hillary when the republicans will do it for them.
Well stated. Also it keeps the focus off Hilly and her outright Clintonesque Classified. Bill Hemmer did a very credible job this morning using Judge Napolitanos statement to Lanny “ the smiling Liar” Davis to debunk the fact that there is no Classified designation. There are defined categories. Classified is Hillys version, used successfully in the Fox sponsored town hall last night to avoid that fact. Bret Baier should have nailed her with it then.
See you need to read Jims post also.
The owner of this website has some advice to you. Take a deep breath, calm down, read it, and think about the advice he is giving you.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3405593/posts
We are going to have a great candidate and we’re going to crush Hillary in the election!
March 5, 2014 | Jim Robinson
Posted on 3/5/2016, 6:03:33 PM by Jim Robinson
Folks, we need to keep our eye on the prize and settle down. We are going to have a great pro-America candidate whether it’s Cruz or Trump, and we’re going to crush the godless America-hating Marxist/fascist felon, Hillary Clinton, in the general election! And that’s just a fact.
And that’s the bottom line.
We are finally going to secure our borders and start helping repatriate the illegal aliens to Mexico or where ever they came from. And we’re going to tighten up and start enforcing our immigration laws, including ending sanctuary cities and possibly ending anchor babies. Both of our leading candidates agree on that.
And we’re going to repeal Obamacare, cut taxes, cut spending, cut regulations, cut the government, cut the debt, cut the global balonyism, cut the P/C crap. We’re going to cut the EPA, cut the education dept, cut a whole lot of unconstitutional stuff out of the federal government and let the states control education and other issues that the constitution reserves to them. Both of our guys agree on that.
We’re going to pay more attention to trade deals and get better deals for American industry and American workers for a change. We’re going to bring back capital, bring back manufacturing, bring back jobs! Cutting taxes, cutting government, rolling back regulations and replacing socialism with capitalism will see to a booming Reaganesque economy and that will generate prosperity and jobs. Cruz, Trump and all of us agree on all of that.
We also agree that we want pro-life, pro-family, pro-constitution, pro-America judges. Both our candidates agree with us on that.
We also want to rebuild our military and make it the most powerful force for peace and defense on the planet. We emphasize peace through strength and do not use our military for nation building or social engineering. We understand it’s for blowing the crap out of terrorists and war mongers who wish to do us harm. And both of our candidates are on board for that.
Hillary stands for the exact opposite on all of the above!!
This primary is going to be over soon and we’re all going to have to make a decision. No matter whether Cruz gets it or Trump, we must unite behind OUR candidate and the AMERICAN side and do all we possibly can to get him elected and send the unindicted felon and all around America-hating, liberty-hating traitor, Hillary Clinton to her well deserved next term—in jail.
I say we drop the vitriol against each other and against our leading candidates as of now. We’re only serving to harden the hearts of our natural allies against us and from this point forward, the hit pieces will not change minds or votes, but will possibly feed the enemy propaganda machine.
Lighten up and bring some joy back into our lives and peace on our board.
We’re among friends here.
Thank you all very much.
God bless.
Major psyops by the Establishment today to try and sway tonight’s vote. Most polls still show Trump way ahead nationally and ahead in most upcoming states. But the occasional outliers are touted and made major stories “Trump is fading, etc”. Also as I speak CNN is once again implying Hitler crowds at Trump rallies.
It’s insane and desperate.
METHODOLOGY:
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone March 3-6, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,000 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect, for the full sample; 5.5 points for registered leaned Republicans; and 6.0 points for registered leaned Democrats. Partisan divisions are 34-25-32 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
Nice try at propaganda.
Thinking more like ‘make it go away’.
Either way. Trump is having trouble sustaining ‘the Trump Train’ :(
He isn’t a perfect candidate by any means but if you are a Trump supporter, a vote for anyone else is same old, same old.
We are finally going to secure our borders and start helping repatriate the illegal aliens to Mexico or where ever they came from. And we’re going to tighten up and start enforcing our immigration laws, including ending sanctuary cities and possibly ending anchor babies. Both of our leading candidates agree on that.
Thanks for posting that. Whether it’s Cruz or Trump, doesn’t matter to me. I like them both, especially Cruz. At this point, may the best guy win. The winner will have an easier time beating Hillary than the one that loses. Beating Hillary is the ultimate goal. Thank God one or both of the leadng candidates (at this point) is not Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio. We should ALL be happy about that.
May the best man win.
<<< Republicans say they prefer the senator by 54 to 41 percent. >>>
Interesting. Cruz2016.
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