He will lose Florida for sure.
There is a reason he is not running for Senate in his home state and the reason is because his Gang of 8 games and stance on immigration have pissed off his constituents and he would lose if he ran again for Senate .
I kept thinking that he was desperate to stay in past Florida where a strong showing would improve his status in the party ... but I think you are right, the potential for a devastating outcome re his future is much more likely now than a positive outcome.