Presidential primaries delegate tracker (as of 3/9/16, 8:30 a.m. ET)

Vox ^ | March 9, 2016 | Andrew Prokop and Sarah Frostenson

[Jim W N]

Republican pledged delegates

Trump 462 37.3% of the way to the nomination Cruz 358 28.9% Rubio 154 12.4% Kasich 54 4.4%

[Buckeye McFrog]

How in the flipping schnarzz did Marco Rubio collect 154 delegates?

[MNGal]

What are people’s thoughts on any (R) candidate reaching the delegate threshold requirement for the nomination? Just curious.

[MNGal]

I assume that all those third place finishes where delegates are proportionally divided are adding up.

[mrs9x]

Rubio and Kasich need to get out. They have no shot at the nomination. This needs to be a Trump-Cruz matchup, let the best man win.

[Donglalinger]

If Trump wins FL and OH he has a good chance.Trump will pick up CA,NY PA,NJ,WA and OR etc

[MNGal]

“Rubio and Kasich need to get out. They have no shot at the nomination. This needs to be a Trump-Cruz matchup, let the best man win.”

I agree. I can’t help thinking that the current situation favors those who would like to see a contested convention. Are GOPe encouraging Rubio and Kasich to stay in to soak up as many delegates as they can?

[TexasCajun]

1,435 Delegates still available.

[BlueNgold]

CA is not the winner take all people seem to think it is.
It’s by congressional district, winners only, no distribution.
There are 10 statewide, all to the winner of the state.

PA is a big time wildcard.
They still elect slates of delegates not candidates, and they are by PA party rules unbound at the convention. 54 wild cards. 17 delegates are bound to the winner for the first ballot.

[GOPJ]

That’s how it’s almost always done... One person wins. I’m not sure what your question means.

[Ingtar]

Using the Green Papers and guessing that Trump will get the last delegate, I have it slightly different:

42.7% of all delegates have been assigned.

Trump 464 or 37.5% of what is needed for nomination
Cruz 364 or 29.4%
Rubio 172 or 13.9%

Or Trump gained 6% of what he needs last night and Cruz gained 5%

[taxcontrol]

For reaching the threshold:

Trump - Probable
Cruz - Possible
Rubio - highly unlikely
Kasich - only with an act of God

[Ingtar]

Trump has 7 rule 40 states. Cruz has 4. 8 fail to meet the requirements of rule 40, unless the GOP calls Puerto Rico a state.

[TomGuy]

Trump has 37% of the needed delegates and basically, he is only 1 full week into March.

Next Tuesday, most are winner-take-all states. That is when the winner in each state can make a more sizeable move toward the 1237 needed for nomination.

Barring some earthshattering surprise, it will be difficult to deny The Donald. As the primaries move to the NE Trump will likely pick up most of those.

[Jim W N]

The GOP would call Mexico a state if they thought it would help them get their guy in there.

[Art in Idaho]

I received this from LS on 3/4. Re-posting here with his permission:

This should make you all feel better, and I’m sure they’ve run these at the GOPe HQ and on Faux News:

By most counts (don’t know why they can’t figure this out) Trump has 338 delegates toward 1237. That puts him ahead of schedule (so to speak) by about 18%.

Tomorrow’s primaries (3/5) will likely give him at least 30% (maybe 40%) of the 134 delegates from KY, KS, LA, and ME (i.e., another 45 delegates). So probably by tomorrow evening Trump should have about 380 delegates, maybe more.

On March 8 he will get 40% of MI, MS, plus some % of ID and HA, or about 55 more delegates (Trump got 71 delegates Tues, 3/8) for a total of about 430 delegates by next week. (It's now Wednesday am, 3/9 and the current Trump delegate count is 458.)

But the big enchilada is March 15, the second Super Tuesday where all of the big states are winner take all: FL, MO, IL, OH, and NC. Trump leads pretty big in all of those. That’s a total of 358 delegates. So there is a pretty good chance that by March 15, Trump will have almost 2/3 of the delegates he needs before he ever goes to the Northeast areas where he will just sweep (another 358 by my count in NY, RI, CT, WV, MD, DE, and PA).

Even allowing for a few losses like UT or AZ (and he led the last poll I saw out of AZ), by the time you get to CA (172) Trump is at 1318. And, again, I’m not even looking at states where I haven’t seen polling or where it has not been favorable to Trump, such as MT, ND, UT, OR, WA, AZ, NJ (which he’ll win easy for another 57 delegates), SD, NM, IN, WI, or NE, plus the territories, all of which hold another 372 delegates. Many of these are winner take all, but not all, and even if he loses in many of these, Trump would still walk away with probably 20% at minimum, or another 50-60 delegates, bringing his total to about 1360.

But last I saw, Trump was leading in AZ, WI, OR, WA, IN, so it’s more likely he would come into the convention with closer to 1400 delegates. (please let me know if you have other updates on some of these in-state polls)

In other words, a blowout. They won’t be able to stop him.

[Jim W N]

The GOPe consternation itself is a sign this will be good for America.

[Ingtar]

Minnesota and Puerto Rico wins gave him 40. The rest are second and third place where things are done proportionally. He has 172, or 13.9% of the number needed for nomination.

[MNGal]

Thanks for posting that.

[LS]

Modificatoin: IL and MO are not pure winner take all but can be with certain conditions met (such as over 50%, etc). There are still some breakdowns, but you get the point. This trendline is completely in Trump’s favor-—and no one else’s.