No, we still have no idea what ted and heidi are hiding. LOL
By their behavior, they sure must be hiding something. Big time upset by everyone over Trump’s tweet to “spill the beans”. Beats me how that is an attack. ;)
I guess I am the only one around here who has taken a statistics course.
The margin of error applies TO EACH REPORTED VALUE, NOT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM!
Thus, Trump’s 41% means the true value lies somewhere in the range 36-46% and Cruz’s 38% is from 33-43%. Of course the total can’t exceed 100% and even Lindsay Graham can’t score less than zero.
No matter how much staring is done at the results, the method does not support any finer reading. It is unknowable.
Along these lines is the “he moved up two points from last week’s poll conducted by the same polling firm.” Maybe yes, maybe no. The number reported is the central value in the range, so having 40% last week and 42% this week in polls with a 3% MOE, could mean an actual drop in support. Last week could have actually been 43% and this week could be 39%.
All points within an interval are equally likely. There’s nothing special about the central value. Nothing.
Even Rush gets this one wrong all the time.
It’s shameful that professional pollster taking heads on the TV don’t educate on this point. Of course that would make their dramatic pronouncements less dramatic (and thus, bad marketing).