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To: McGruff
This is pretty significant news. When factoring out super delegates (who can change their mind at any time), and counting just "earned" (won) delegates, Shrillary's lead over Bernie actually stands at less than that of Trump over Cruz. The margin is even tighter when you consider that there are almost twice as many delegates on the Democrat side.

Everybody just assumes that the super delegates are overwhelmingly in her camp so they add those into her column, artificially inflating her lead.

Well you only have to go back to 2008 to see where super delegates moved en mass to another candidate late in the process.

In 2008, it was once again Shrillary Clinton who was the presumptive nominee. Even when Obama started winning primary after primary, Shrillary felt secure that her super delegates would never desert her and she harbored the false notion that even if Obama beat her on "earned" delegates, she would have the super delegates in her pocket that would ultimately secure her the nomination.

It was not until the end of May, yes MAY, that super delegates started switching over to Obama. That's because through April and May, Shrillary was still winning primaries in places like PA, WV and KY and so stayed within striking distance of Obama due to her super delegates.

It took until June 7th (I just looked it up) before Shrillary finally conceded the nomination to Obama. By that time, most of her super delegates had bailed, making her nomination an impossibility.

Not saying that Bernie will duplicate what Obama did, but should be pick up Wisconsin, he will be close to even with Shrillary in earned delegates and on the verge of passing her.

I do not think New York is a given for Shrillary. Bernie's momentum is building in New York day by day.

24 posted on 03/30/2016 3:48:12 PM PDT by SamAdams76 (Delegates So Far: Trump (736); Cruz (463); Rubio (171); Kasich (143)
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To: SamAdams76

Those super delegates are going to schlong Bernie. I just hope his supporters stay home for the election. Or vote Trump.


32 posted on 03/30/2016 4:49:09 PM PDT by McGruff (We don't need another JFK)
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