Posted on 04/04/2016 5:33:15 AM PDT by Mifflin
Based on current delegate counts and poll numbers Ted Cruz will be mathematically unable to reach the delegate count required for him to win the Republican Presidential nomination. By the end April it will be clear that Ted Cruz has no chance of reaching the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination.
Well said.
The problem is that a fair number of Trump supporters refuse to credit others with holding honestly-held opinions. To them, every non-Trump voter is just a "stooge of the GOP-e", or some such thing.
Most of us have thought out our opinions as well, and simply disagree. Threats by some Trump supporters to take their ball and go home if they don't get their way is more apt to prompt a response of "go ahead", than it is to intimidate people into lining up behind Trump.
I don't know why so many people have apparently reached the conclusion that rudeness and incivility is the most effective way to rally people to your position.
If I had confidence that Trump and Cruz could hold onto their delegates after the first ballot I would withdraw everything I said. I am just so jaded and distrustful of the GOPe that I do not think this will happen.
Making Trump follow rules is not dirty tricks!!!
Food for thought:
I think that we can all agree that if any candidate enters the convention with an absolute majority of delegates bound to them, they will be nominated on the first ballot.
The other possibility is that no candidate enters the convention with an absolute majority of delegates bound to them. In that case, if only two candidates meet the requirement to have their name placed in nomination and the delegates are only allowed to vote for individuals whose name is placed in nomination, basic math would dictate that, with an uneven number of delegates, one of these two will receive a majority on the first ballot. It would only go to a second ballot if there were three or more names placed in nomination.
Wrong....
Santorum dropped out around the 2nd week of April when his daughter was put in the hospital
Gingrich dropped out in May
Paul quit actively campaigning around May 14 to focus on delegate selection conventions at the state level
Romney "made" the required number of delegates, 1,144, by the first of June, after Texas voted.
Cruz studied the 2012 nomination process and has been working the delegate conventions like Paul did....while still actively campaigning, from Day One.
Will this make a difference? Who knows, but I don't believe Cruz is "hanging in there" when there's no chance to win. I think he saw several ways to win the nomination, by calculating several scenarios before the primary season started.
It also should be mentioned that with Kasich still in and Rubio retaining his delegates, Cruz may know something that Trump's campaign hasn't even looked at, per primary rules.
I would guess this is "part" of the reason Trump met with the GOPe so they could reiterate what the rules are since he keeps whining about "stealing" his delegates. He should have hired someone like Manafort before the election even started...it remains to be seen if Manafort can play "catch up".
I've already voted in my primary....and we shall see what the rest of the country does. If Trump gets the required number of delegates before the convention, then we have our nominee for the General. If he doesn't, it will be played out by the rules of the Republican nomination process, as it has been in years past.
With the lack of character Cruz has shown so far why would anyone expect him to drop out. He didn’t support Trump’ supporter right to freedom of speech in Chicago and he won’t support anything other than being the anointed king.
Some on both sides have lost sight of the goal....keep Hillary out of the Whitehouse!!!
But after the first ballot the delegates could support whomever they wished, thus allowing anyone who could then gain the support of a majority in eight state delegations to have his name entered in nomination.
Supporting Trump and bringing Character into the conversation is laughable!!!
Well spoken!!
True by current rules. But remember, rules vote comes before nominee vote. And if there is a super majority that supports rule 40, they could modify the rules to keep rule 40 in for longer, say till the 10th round of votes????
[wink wink nudge nudge]
Hoist the GOPe on their own petard.
To you. TPP, TPA, Coker, Teddy bears to welcome illegals at the border, constantly blaming Trump for everything without proof, ignoring that the sex scandal story started with Rubio, Heidi Cruz and NAU. At least Trump loves America, the Cruz seem to love NAU and no borders.
You Trumpkins are a Hoot. Everything you post above is EXACTLY what Donnie will do if the wins the nomination. If you are being honest and not just posting BS you're head is going to explode watching Donnie campaign with RINOS, take the RINO CASH and use the Establishment system to run against Hillary.
Rule 40 already applies to all ballots. The point is that after the first ballot the delegates are free to support and vote for whomever they wish. Thus if the so-called "pledged delegates" are actually party professionals rather than true Trump or Cruz supporters then on a subsequent ballot all that needs to happen is for the majority of delegates in eight state delegations to declare that they support Paul Ryan or someone else to have his name entered into nomination, even with rule 40 still in place.
Considering the Democrats, The Republicans, the media...virtually the entire establishment political class is opposing Trump vehemently, vigorously and unrelentingly do you really believe that scenario you're peddling?
Makes no sense in reality.
Are you serious? Delegates were selling their votes for all sorts of graft then. There was constant deal making to gain delegates. What's happening today is no different than '76. You really should read more about this before you go off calling people names. Doesn't matter if it's a book, articles sourced on the internet or the History channel. You're denigrating Cruz for the same things Reagan did in '76.
and make GOPe deals again like Cruz?
Again, if you had any idea what you were talking about you wouldn't have posted such nonsense. Reagan chose a VP before the convention, which nobody did back then, to try and swing liberals to his side. He chose Schweikert of PA, who was to the left of even the the country club republicans who, back then, were the GOPe. Yet again, you disparage Cruz for doing the same things Reagan did in '76. Don't you think you should at least make an effort to be consistent?
Did Nancy also work for Goldman Sachs?
No, she was too busy consulting astrologers. Guilt by association is just another logical fallacy you're engaged in. Trump has billions of loans from large banks like Goldman and Citi. He's even an investor in Goldman and benefits from their success. By your lame standard, Trump is owned by these big banks and will do their bidding if he wants to continue earning billions from that relationship. Consistency doesn't appear to be your friend.
I have heard this argument before but am not sure it is correct. Rule 40(e) provides:
If no candidate shall have received such majority, the chairman of the convention shall direct the roll of the states be called again and shall repeat the calling of the roll until a candidate shall have received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention.
My interpretation of the rules is that once the nomination process, including speeches is over, balloting begins and there is no provision for reopening the nomination process after each ballot. Second and subsequent ballots are confined to the individuals whose name was initially placed in nomination. I can't find any past action supporting any other conclusion. Second and subsequent ballots are to allow for compromise and accommodation between supporters of existing nominees.
Trump may have been naive and inexperienced in the beginning on how the process worked. He is trying to remedy that now by hiring some very good people to represent his interests in the convention process.
But let's be clear, Trump didn't get to where he is by being dumb. For someone running for his first elective office, he has done amazingly well. His voters are the most committed, enthusiastic, and motivated. He holds a commanding lead in delegates, votes, and states won.
Don't underestimate the street fighter from Queens who will use his leverage at the convention (if it is contested) to deal with the "rules" and the GOPe. He will use the rules against them and he will have no compunction in tearing the temple down if they continue to f*ck with him. Negotiating with the GOPe will be easier than the real estate denizens around the world. Trump knows how to use the media and PR to bring pressure to bear. Will the GOPe want to burn down the party to save it? Trump has already laid down his marker with the RNC.
What I’d Cruz wins Ca and ends up with say 900 delegates why should he cede the nomination to trump especially in light of all the free media trump has gotten?
Trump is leading in CA. What if Trump wins in CA? How does Cruz end up with 900 delegates even if he wins CA? You do know that CA is not a winner take all state. It is winner take most. Where does Cruz get 450 more delegates? After WI there are only 901 delegates left to be allocated and that includes 95 from NY and 51 from NJ? Cruz will be lucky to get 825.
What happens if Trump has 1175 delegates prior to the convention and Cruz has 825? And millions more votes and twice as many states won including the battleground states of FL and PA?
Stealing the nomination from Trump using the "rules" will be a disaster for the GOP. No doubt, Trump, the master of the media, will make that abundantly clear. As for the GOPe, be careful for what you wish for.
Maybe so, maybe not. You do agree, don’t you, that without the pardon of Nixon hung around his neck like a millstone, Reagan would have had a much better chance at beating Carter than Ford? Even so, Ford made it very close. Without Carter, Iranian sponsored terror may never have happened. Hindsight is always 20/20, but to suggest that Cruz is somehow behaving differently than Reagan in ‘76 is a pretty tough argument to make given what we know to be true during that time.
What happens if Trump has 1175 delegates prior to the convention and Cruz has 825? And millions more votes and twice as many states won including the battleground states of FL and PA?
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An open convention, and Ted wins.
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