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Looks to me like he will lose to Cruz on the 2nd or 3rd ballot at the convention.

Cruz won't win on those ballots. Once the first ballot is cast, the GOPe will stuff their mystery candidate in to the works. The fix is in.

Stop with the "fix is in" crap. The Rules of the GOP are posted on line and were last revised in a major way at the convention in 2012. The week before the convention the rules committee, made up of delegates to the convention, will meet and may consider and approve new rules or amendments to existing rules. The rules committee functions according to the exiting rules of the GOP, which set the function and composition of the committee.

The nomination is secured by a vote of the delegates. It is a binary condition with respect to each candidate. Either yes, you have at least 1237 votes or no you do not have at least 1237 votes. No Mulligans or gimmies in this. You simply tally the votes in successive ballots until someone is nominated. Having 1234, 1235, or 1236 delegates voting for you in any given ballot, does not make you the nominee, no matter how much you wet the bed over it.

The rules are very transparent, and not knowing the rules, or not working within the process, according to the rules, is not an excuse to go out and blame conspiracies and secret processes.