[TexasFreeper2009]

I have been saying for awhile that Trump will secure the nomination after California votes. Most people keep listing California as proportional. Which is WRONG.

California is winner take all (by congressional district) Just like Wisconsin!

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Wisconsin - Winner take all by state (18 delegates) and individual district (8 districts x 3 delegates =24)

California - Winner take all by state (10 delegates) and individual district (53 districts x 3 delegates =159)
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So a big win by Trump in California will result in him winning all the congressional districts and thus winning ALL the delegates, just like Cruz just won all the delegates from Wisconsin.

I have not seen a SINGLE news reporter talking about Trump coming up short that has gotten this right. They usually give Trump about 100 or so of California’s delegates. I think they are purposely doing it to keep the horse race talk going. Because pretending Trump will only get 100 or so from California is the only way they can make it look like Trump will come up short.

[TontoKowalski]

Although he is a lefty, Nate Silver does a pretty good job with projecting races based on core demographics.

He's worth a twitter follow. He consistently projected a Cruz victory in Wisconsin. He also projects huge Trump delegate wins in New York (and he rest of the East) and California.

Trump supporters, myself included, were disappointed in Wisconsin result, but it was not unexpected.

[SoothingDave]

If you believe that Trump will win in absolutely every district in California, your analysis is correct.

I don’t believe that that outcome is expected.

[John Valentine]

A big win for Trump in California? LOL!

Trump’s got his hands full holding on to New York.

[HamiltonJay]

I don’t think you will see either guy take all the delegates of any state that is not an absolute WTA... Trump got a few out of WI, Cruz will likely get a few out of NY, and CA... but Trump will get the the vast majority.

PA is the tossup as district delegates are unbound and can vote for whoever they want regardless of how their district votes. However, polling done of those running show about 2/3 intend to vote the way of their district... so you will have about 1/3 that will vote for their guy regardless of their district. So regardless of how the state goes there loser will also get some delegates.. but I would expect the winner to get the majority of them.

Any math that requires anyone to win ALL the delegates of any state that isn’t a defacto absolute winner take all is laughable.