This analysis doesn’t mean diddly because it’s not a national election.
I’ve asked this many times of Cruz supporters and have never gotten anything but crickets. Assuming Cruz wins a contested convention on the 2nd, 3rd, whatever ballot, what is his path to 270?
The reps will need to retake OH, FL, VA and NV in the general, all states that went to Obama in 2008 and 2012—a tall order under the best of circumstances. Cruz came in a distant third in all four. In VA it was T+18. In FL it was T+29, In NV it was T+25, in OH it was K+34, T+23 over Cruz.
Will Rep primary voters feel disenfranchised if the frontrunner going into the convention doesn’t get the nomination? We have polling that suggests a third of Trump voters will stay home. Even if that number is greatly inflated it will only take a few percent in these four vital states, states where Cruz is already unpopular, to stay home, for Cruz to have no chance of winning.
RE: I’ve asked this many times of Cruz supporters and have never gotten anything but crickets. Assuming Cruz wins a contested convention on the 2nd, 3rd, whatever ballot, what is his path to 270?
Objectively, at this point in time, unless Hillary gets indicted, neither Cruz nor Trump are going to beat Hillary. That’s just the way things are as of this time.
There’s a significant number who are still establishment supporters, but a huge number want to see the GOP destroyed ( and that’s a huge number within the GOP itself ). The GOP is DIVIDED today.
Let’s face it, this country is becoming more and more center left, when in the past, it was more center right.
Cruz will lose to Hillary, but so will Trump ( I think by an even bigger spread ).
expecting 2/3 of trump voters to remain loyal to a party that is shafting him and us is way too optimistic ....