Posted on 04/11/2016 9:32:26 PM PDT by AmericanInTokyo
CASPER – Study a map of presidential primary results and you’ll see Donald Trump dominating in the northeast. You’ll see him beating more established candidates in Arizona and Nevada and stunning pundits with dominance in the South.
But where you won’t see Trump winning big, or winning much at all, is in Wyoming, Utah and Idaho, three of the nation’s reddest states. There, the real estate mogul and famed reality star has struggled to connect with voters.
Trump is still the front-runner for the GOP nomination, but he has failed in the Northern Rockies. He lost to Sen. Ted Cruz in Idaho and Utah and has claimed only one delegate so far in Wyoming – the same number as U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who has since dropped out. Cruz, in comparison, earned nine.
Several factors have contributed to Trump’s lack of success in the Northern Rockies, political observers say.
His top opponent, Cruz, has more often discussed issues that resonate with voters here – land issues, energy and gun rights.
Cruz also has made deeper inroads in the region. He has visited Wyoming once and will return Saturday. Trump has yet to visit.
And Trump’s brash style also may be hurting him, especially with Mormon voters who make up a sizable voting bloc.
Ground game Cruz got nine of the 12 delegates at the GOP county conventions in March and is expected to do well when the state’s final 14 are chosen Saturday at the Wyoming GOP Convention in Casper.
The Cruz campaign has been on the ground in here since October. But the Texas senator’s success in the Cowboy State is the result of more than his ground game, said Ed Buchanan, former state House speaker and chairman of Cruz’s Wyoming efforts.
“The positions that Trump has held over his entire career just don’t resonate with Wyoming voters,” Buchanan said. “I don’t think he shares the values and lifestyle of Western people. I don’t think he’s really in touch with what drives the economy out West – with agriculture, with natural resources, with energy production.”
Cruz, on the other hand, is from Texas, a state that has much in common with Wyoming, Buchanan said. And Cruz has been steadfast on the Second Amendment, which is important to Wyoming.
The senator first spoke in Wyoming, frequently treated as a flyover state for presidential elections, on Aug. 20 for a GOP fundraiser. When he returns for the state GOP convention, he will be the only major GOP candidate to make the trip.
The Trump campaign is sending Sarah Palin in his stead. And Idaho Gov. Butch Otter will speak to Republicans on behalf of Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Libertarian streak Trump’s most intense support comes from white voters with lesser educations and lower incomes. In theory, that might help Trump with blue-collar voters – especially in parts of the state hammered by the energy downturn.
But Wyoming possesses more of a libertarian streak rather than Trump-style nationalism, said Matt Dallek, a professor in the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University.
“It is possible that Trump has continued to damage himself,” Dallek said. “There’s a sense that, look, we want a Republican, but it’s not necessarily Trump.”
In the Western and more conservative parts of the country, Dallek said, Trump may not be playing well to voters because of questions about his personal morality and whether he’s truly committed to limited government.
Also playing into Trump’s lack of popularity here are Mormon voters.
Nine percent of Wyomingites are members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, according to a recent Pew Research Center study.
Mormon voters have rejected Trump in Idaho and Utah because they are uncomfortable with his anti-Muslim comments, which stir memories of persecution of the LDS in American history.
Teton vote During last month’s Republican county conventions, Trump won in only one place – Teton County. And even that might be more of a fluke than a sign of deep-seated support, says one prominent Republican.
Keith Gingery, from Jackson and an ex-legislator, said many at the Teton County Convention were pushing for an undeclared delegate.
“We thought it that would give us much more of an advantage because people would woo them,” he said.
But the undeclared candidates couldn’t get a majority of the vote. After several rounds of voting, Jon Baker, a delegate supporting Trump, won.
Although Cruz has so far come out on top in Wyoming, Trump has started a conversation that has energized voters, said Campbell County Republican Party Chairman Chris Smith.
Faith appeal Some of Cruz’s support comes from his ability to appeal to the faith-based community, Smith said, while Trump’s aggressive views on immigration, nationalism and employment have jumped out to Wyoming voters in an election year where unemployment in the state is rising and the energy industry is in a slump.
Some Trump supporters say their voice hasn’t been heard in the process.
Clarence Vranish is one. The ex-state legislator said there was no vote, no debate on who they would support in Uinta County. His county went to Cruz.
The list of politicians Trump has vanquished is already lengthy and could grow to include Kasich and Cruz before primary season is over.
But Trump could still fall short of the necessary number of delegates, about 1,237, to secure the nomination. If that happens, his poor showing in the Northern Rockies will have played a role.
Thou failest indeed to graspeth tongue-in-cheek humor. Lighten thee up, Francisco.
No ground game would indicate that generally speaking Trump’s support base is a mile wide and an inch deep.
Trump’s supporters are willing to go to the rallies in record numbers, but they are apparently not willing to get down in the trenches and do the ground work to win these kinds of conventions. At least not in the numbers or with the dedication that Cruz’s people are doing.
Trump is running a top-down centralized campaign. Cruz has always had a grass roots campaign and it is starting to show results and Trump is whining about the rules that were in place long before he ever became a pseudo conservative.
...”do you think this cruz supporter will vote for Trump? The answer is yes”....
Took me a long time to even consider that possibility with the trashy mouth and entire mannerisms of Trump, not to mention his positions changing from one day to another. He doesn’t know or care where he stands on positions because he’s simply after the seat of power.
However, there’s more to this election then the President....there’s all the ground gained in Congressional seats which would change.....the supreme court positions....and on and on. I cannot imagine the fallout on this nation were the demorats to win this election.
So yes I would vote for Trump and gripe all the way to the voting booth....and cry after the fact....then pray really hard!!!!
Right now Cruz has the image of a crooked dirty politician outside of the few republican voters that hate trump more than they want to win in November.
I know personally 4 Obama voters that crossed over because of their disdain for the two libs running in the Democrat party... Cruz does not even come close to getting their votes.
Not even Mitch the Senate will give Cruz a Senate resolution, resolving Cruz eligible to hold the office of president. IF Hillry is the nominee she has already judge shopped to send Cruz packing.
And if Mitch the Senate will not give Cruz a resolution, that means the Romney GOP and his RNC ‘prince’ will do their part in having a contested convention and place the candidate of their choosing in Cruz's place. Every direction for Cruz is down except for short term gains using the GOPe rules..
This is heard in a lot of states. They don’t have a good ground game, boots on the ground. They are carpet bombing (Air Power) from the luxury of 40,000 feet with little follow up, while the other guy (Ground Game) is running roughshod over them with hit and run guerilla tactics on the ground and incrementally peeling off delegates to prevent the 1,237. It has happened before in presidential politics.
I tried tongue-in-cheek humor in a couple of other threads. I think Trump stole their tongue-in-cheek humor sensor.
Let me be the first in to say.... Whaaaaa...Cruz cheated...Whaaaa.
- - - - - Let me guess, you thought you'd just get to toss that out there on the forum and Trump folks would completely ignore it.
You folks post the antisocial posts, and the act as if it's someone elses bad behavior when they call you on it.
No, it was your bad behavior that started it.
Maybe neither of these clowns should be the nominee. Maybe the only way to save the country is to have a contested convention where neither Cruz nor Trump get the nomination.
Donald Trump certainly possesses an amazing talent: the ability to re-make his followers in his own image -- as belligerent jerks.
As usual, another Cruzbot who deflects. Trump isn’t the ego-maniac you think - in fact, Cruz is more of a narcissist than Trump ever dreamed of being. Besides, that he is the spawn of Satan. Jesus said that those who lie belong to their father the devil. I rest my case. Ted is just like obama - every time he opens his ugly mouth - he lies.
Selecting, not electing.
And if president, you can be sure Trump would run a very Washington, D.C.-centrific government, with commands from on high down to the local levels. I doubt there would be very little grassroots power nor return roles to the local governments. There would, however, be plenty of statism to go around for everyone.
Wyoming is all of 500,000 people including children and pets.
Wyoming is conservative except when they’re not, and they don’t like change except when things change. Their mindset is a leave-us-alone or at least leave-us-mostly alone or try to leave us alone unless we’re not around, then have at it. They allow you to have yourself a short visit, you are allowed to spend your money, then go home and you should go home.
Liberal enclave Jackson Hole is tolerated so long as liberals there keep quiet. Wyoming people don’t like ‘loud’ anything. They view both Cruz and Trump as ‘loud’ with Trump the louder.
Trump has problems connecting with Wyoming people because most of the time they’re asleep, even when they’re standing up with their eyes open.
Don’t wake Wyoming up. They like their nap times after morning naps, before afternoon naps and especially before evening naps. These are actually pre-naps but don’t tell them that or they might invite you to go hunting. You do not want to go hunting with someone from Wyoming. Trust me.
Exactly.....
Cruz has been running an airtight ground game,..he even uses an overhead screen displaying his delegates names....( of which Trump doesn’t even bother to get right let along display)
At these caucuses and conventions even some of his volunters where T-Shirts listing his delegates names.... names....in contrast Trump sends out fliers listing names riddled with errors....a half dozen of their delegate candidates were listed with the wrong delegate number. ...At least one of the delegate numbers corresponded to a delegate supporting Cruz.....
Thereafter the Trump campaign reprinted the flier, but the second flier also included several errors. ....the Trump campaign has acknowledged that it did not expect to win any delegates in Colorado to begin with.....Trump canceled a planned rally in Colorado.. he was a no show at the convention as well. .....
This all just continues to show that Trump chose to run his campaign as he wanted despite warnings he was given he needed to build a ground game.
LOL!
What, is he worse? That would be difficult.
Well, if it’s his “religious” pitch, they’re buying, he’s certainly got them fooled.
Whose religious pitch Trump’s or Cruz’s?
Deceitful Don is the one who can't be trusted on partial-birth abortions. Here is Ducking Donald dodging and deflecting when asked about his views on late-term abortion. This was on January 28 of this year:
Trump freaks out when asked about abortion again
And you wonder why conservatives do not trust this arrogant clown??
I feel sorry for you Cuzbots - most of you are dumber than a box of rocks. One day, you will be eating crow over your stupidity - because the truth about Cruz will come out - and I don’t mean his sexual escapades either. I don’t know if these rumors or true or not, but, usually where there is smoke there is fire. I’m talking about his characteristics - and they aren’t good. He’s an ugly, ugly, person - inside and out. I detest the very air he breathes.
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