At Wyoming GOP Convention, Cruz Still Running Circles Around Trump (Convention Tomorrow)

CASPER, Wyo. — On Saturday morning, while his two rivals for the Republican nomination stay back east, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, will fly to this city to address the state GOP convention. The potential prize: Fourteen delegates to the national convention in Cleveland. The competition: Hard to find.

On Friday, with no explanation to either party officials or media, Donald Trump's campaign announced that Sarah Palin would cancel her scheduled speech here. Additionally, while Republicans gathered for a barbecue and fried chicken dinner, the campaign of Gov. John Kasich, R-Ohio, was invisible, and the Trump campaign was clearly outmatched.

The story can be simply told in the leaflets that the campaigns are issuing to the 64 people campaigning to become delegates. Trump, who performed weakly at the county conventions in March, has no explicit slate. At a table near the main hall, where pro-Trump candidate Cat Morningstar has provided her own essay about why she should go to Cleveland, Trump's campaign has provided the email of the "Wyoming team," and nothing else.

"We know how Wyoming is going to go," Trump senior adviser Paul Manafort conceded in an interview this week.

Cruz's campaign, by contrast, is buzzing with activity. His Wyoming delegate hunter Ed Buchanan could be seen busily setting up a hospitality suite — the only one of its kind, a contrast with the competition in North Dakota's convention two weeks ago. At every dinner table, Cruz's campaign has provided a simple list of its preferred 14 delegates.

The most immediate competition for Cruz may not be Trump, but a campaign for a "Wyoming first" slate that would attend the convention unbound to any candidate.

But Cruz faced a similar situation in North Dakota, and got most of his preferred delegates elected. According to Sen. Mike Enzi, R-Wyoming, Cruz has rushed into a gap that might have otherwise been filled by the libertarian supporters of Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kentucky, and brought out the most sophisticated delegate-chasing operation Wyoming has yet seen.

The Wyoming Republican Party delegate selection plan is more like Colorado’s than anything else. Registered Republicans with lots of time and money to follow each step of the lengthy process are more likely to be activists within the state party than general republicans interested in the presidential race. That has an impact on turnout and eventually the outcome of the delegate selection process. This grants the state party much more control over the process.

But this caucus is less open then Colorado. Wyoming Republican delegates will be bound to the presidential candidate to whom they have pledged heading into the conventions where those delegates are chosen. By having only approved committee vote for the delegates, the party is ensured their choice as opposed to the popular vote.

Note: It’s interesting how some states changed their rules to exclude lots of voters: The last polling (summer) in Wyoming had Jeb Bush in the lead. Bush-Cheney-> Wyoming! ... Realizing they nearly lost 2012 to Rick, they decided to play a much different game for 2016.

2012 Primary Election results
Mitt Romney.........822.......38.99%.... 11
Rick Santorum......679.......31.93%...... 8
Ron Paul...............439.......20.83%...... 6
Newt Gingrich.......165.........7.83%...... 2
Others.....................9..........0.43%...... 0

2016
275,000 Registered republican voters
980 Committeeman choose the delegates.
.03 % of the eligible voters choose the President

34% Cruz, 4% Rubio, 4% Trump

Wyoming already chose 12 of the delegates and will choose the other 17.

16 February - 1 March 2016: Precinct Caucuses. Candidates for delegates to the county conventions declare their presidential preference (including undecided).

12 March 2016: The County Conventions meet over several days to choose 12 of 29 of Wyoming’s delegates to the Republican National Convention.

Approximately 980 (?) County precinct committeemen are eligible to vote for the National Convention Delegates and Alternates at the County Conventions. Wyoming has 23 counties grouped into 12 Delegate-Districts. Laramie, the county that cast the most votes of any county for the Republican candidate for Congress in the general election immediately preceding the National Convention, selects both a Delegate and an Alternate. State Party by-laws require that each delegate must inform the convention of which presidential candidate, if any, they would cast their vote for at the national convention. [Bylaws of the Wyoming Republican Party Article VI.8.11]

14 April - 16 April 2016: The Wyoming State Republican Convention convenes in Cheyenne. On Saturday 16 April, the State Convention chooses the remaining 17 of Wyoming’s delegates to the Republican National Convention.

The 3 party leader delegates, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the Wyoming’s Republican Party will attend the convention as unpledged delegates by virtue of their position.

>>Is your position that Wyoming is ‘rigged’, or rather is it the case that it was a case of clear rules that needed to be addressed by campaign operatives starting back some months ago? I would really love to hear your sentiment on that.

Its not rigged. Many of us are just taken by surprise that these states that usually don’t matter have such arcane procedures for choosing their delegates.

Trump’s people should have known this and prepared better. But, remember that these states rarely matter. They really don’t matter this time, except that the Party will use Trump’s delegate count that is a little short of the 1237 as their cue to drop in the Designated Loser. They usually let the leftist media do the heavy lifting on that, but this time they have to do it themselves.

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