It’s all looking bleak....there most likely will not be one major event, like you mentioned, but a cascading collapse that builds upon itself.
That’s how I see it. A lot of folks seemed primed for some single cataclysmic incident with an immediate impact. I’m thinking more in the direction of a grinding decay that exponentially builds, with people acclimitizing and self-deluding themselves to it all along the way. But then being totally surprised when things truly start to spiral out of control.