Posted on 04/26/2016 8:30:26 AM PDT by tatown
Hope you’re right—and I hope PA voters don’t take any cue from Senator Toomey who just announced that he voted for Cruz!
Mandy may have been hoping to be First Mistress.
It's just that this whole thing is so darn weird. If this campaign were a movie, it would be a satire. A TV show? A wickedly funny comedy. But the background is a president who puts Predident Camero of Idiocray in the "more Presidential" column. Our Constituion-based nation has become a parody of what it's supposed to be.
Here's what concerns me: Cruz is a wounded animal who can't recover. Mygosh even Savannah, Matt, and Chuck on NBC news were mocking the deal after interviewing KSick. If what by all rational paths has to happen does happen. Cruz isn't the only wounded animal out there. The whole of the GOP backstabbing elite have been exposed, marginalized, and their power base destroyed. Will they exhibit class and at least an ounce of patriotism or will they be Cruz's army of flame-throwers, destroying what is no longer theirs?
Meanwhile, look at Trump. At the beginning, I thought it was playful Trump playing a national game of Candidate Apprentice, being able to determine who would be "fired" along the way. But then the insiders got dumb....tried to stop him from visiting border patrol, from airing Miss Universe, even from letting him give kids a helicopter ride.
The result? like he said, he's a counter-puncher. Everybody who sought to destroy him who didn't apologize is through. Mygosh, look what he did to Ksick yesterday after The Collaberation. Those two idiots unleashed Rally Trump, and they think they have the brains to be President.
Okay, that's out of my mind and typed out. It is absolutely Shakespearean. And who is Trump? An absolute giant, among the very few, in World History as we've learned it. It's all so remarkable.
So yeah, I agree with your analysis. But I'm very cautious of the arrogant and entitled in the upper echelons. They may not stay classy, having been destroyed in terms of politics and power.
didn’t aljazera go bankrupt recently?
I happen to live just down the street from my polling place (SE PA). As I sit watching out my front window, I can gauge activity by the traffic going by.
My unscientific judgement is that today is very busy for a primary day, but not as busy as a general election. It will pick up a lot as rush hour approaches.
There were no lines when I voted at 9:30, but that’s a particularly quiet time, unless a busload of seniors comes in from the local retirement villages.
My voter number was higher than what I usually see at that time of day.
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But the poster may be saying Trump will get 118 of the 172 available.
Pennsylvania has 50 or so unbound delegates that I didn't count in my breakdown. That's the difference you're seeing. Trump may get some of that 50, none of that 50 or all of that 50. Obviously, the more of those 50 he gets the fewer he needs from the remaining states. But even if he gets 0, it likely won't matter.
Don't believe all the B.S. that's flying around about contested conventions. It's all product of a media-hype machine that hates Trump and is desperate for the ratings such a thing would draw. Then it's repeated and repeated and pushed by Cruz supporters, GOPe and #NeverTrump types. It's all wishful thinking on their part. Nothing more. The calendar and the math say so.
He has been up against it and............WINNING!
Hopefully you’re right, but I’m not taking any chances.
I must have received fifteen calls from a PAC that calls itself “New Day for America” pushing a particular slate of delegates.
I looked up the delegates, and the online guides claim they are Uncommitted, but when I went to the PAC’s website I realized it was TOTALLY in the tank for Kasich.
Don’t think for one minute do I think Trump has his work cut out for him, he doesn’t. Trump will face as much if not more fire from the right than he will from Hillary once the general election begins.
However, the only thing that is going to stop Trump is Trump. The cost of a Presidential campaign is roughly 1/2 a Billion dollars, once Trump has the nomination I would expect that the string pullers will not allocate what they should to help get him elected.... the one and only question I want to hear asked of Trump that no one has, is simply this:
The cost of a presidential campaign nationally is about a 1/2 a Billion dollars... we all know the establishment, at least large swaths of it, are against you and will do whatever they can to undercut you, so if they decide to shut off the tap, are you, personally willing to spend out of your own pocket 1/2 a Billion to run a good race in the General?
That’s the one question that tells you whether the establishment will be able to stop him, if Trump is not willing to completely self support irrespective of the party structure, then he has a problem. If he is seriously committed to self funding, truly self funding, because the bombastic keep the press eye on me by being outrageous won’t get you though a general.
By golly they did!
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2016/1/13/al-jazeera-america-to-close-down.html
Can we take at least partial credit? Trump surely deserves some...even though they were probably no more dishonest than the remaining media.
Trump will get the overwhelming majority of the congressional district delegates... 2/3 of those running have stated they will vote for whoever wins their district... the other 1/3 are fairly evenly divided between Trump and Cruz.....
Trump has done a good job using social media to make sure folks in PA know which delegates support him in their districts... the unbound delegate thing is a non starter.. Cruz may get more delegates than he would if PA were a strict winner take all by district, but the difference will be nominal.
Trump should be around 1000 delegates after tonight +/-
You got it right.
Contested convention talk is mostly bait to try to get Trump and supporters to do something really stupid.
The only remotely possible ‘contested’ convention would be like 1976, when a few uncommitted delegate votes were needed to put Ford over the top. Plenty of room for Trump with uncommitted or released delegates. A lot of those party regulars some people love to hate don’t hate Trump, and, more importantly, want a winner.
Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Convention: DON’T PANIC!
Trump getting the nomination, then explaining the expense thing to the public in an honest way, could work just fine. Say that he needs donations, but prefers they not be more than $100 and an understanding that there are no strings attached. Maybe hawk campaign gear as an alternative for those who'd prefer that instead of an outright donation. Make clear that he doesn't want anyone to feel that they are any less appreciated and supported if they don't donate.
Look how much Sanders got using the small donor approach. And that was from folks who think they should have everything handed to them!
“The cost of a presidential campaign nationally is about a 1/2 a Billion dollars... we all know the establishment, at least large swaths of it, are against you and will do whatever they can to undercut you, so if they decide to shut off the tap, are you, personally willing to spend out of your own pocket 1/2 a Billion to run a good race in the General?
That’s the one question that tells you whether the establishment will be able to stop him, if Trump is not willing to completely self support irrespective of the party structure, then he has a problem. If he is seriously committed to self funding, truly self funding, because the bombastic keep the press eye on me by being outrageous won’t get you though a general.”
That won’t be a problem. Just look at how much money Ron Paul raised from grassroots donations when he ran in 2008 and 2012. Trump can reach many times the number of people Ron reached.
“Voted for Trump this morning in SW Pennsylvania.”
Trump is going to compete in this area quite well in the general election (assuming he wins the nomination) ... the same thing can’t be said about Cruz ... Kasich would actually have a better chance than Cruz, but not much.
The old school Dems will vote for Pig in a Pantsuit. The young crazies @ the Universities will all vote for Sanders, but that won’t be enough ... and they don’t seem to like Hillary. Turnout for her will be nothing like 2008 Obama.
That’ll all help offset Philadelphia corruption and could give the commonwealth to Trump :-). He’s going to need it to offset a somewhat probable loss in VA due to DC mindset sprawl.
Obama and Romney campaigns each spent over a billion dollars in 2012.
A single nationwide primary would likely cost successful campaigns an equal amount.
Wikipedia says all are winner take all except for Rhode Island which is proportional.
Delaware and PA are pure winner take all (with the exception of PA’s 54 unbound delegates...a big exception)
The rest are a combo of winner take all state level delegates and winner take all per congressional district.
All are closed except RI which is semi-closed
Connecticut has a 20% threshold and RI has a 10% threshold.
I’ve read they are plurality takes all, but I’m not sure.
any “entrance polls” ? line up reports?
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