The math is simple, there are 512 of delegates left after today... Trump will be somewhere near 1000 by the end of the night. Of the 512 left he’ll need about 250 roughly to reach the minimum of 1237....
Cruz is fading, and Kasich never was... the actions of Cruz during and since Wisconsin have ensured he will continue to be beating by larger and larger margins with every passing loss. Polls show now that most republican voters view him as an establishment candidate... and that was before his latest publicly announced deal with Kasich.
Cruz’s numbers began to tank nationally during and after Wisconsin when he got full in bed with the establishment in exchange for them handing him a win there... his numbers will continue to drop, and Trump’s will continue to rise.
The alliance with Kasich will kill him even more than the perpetual loses he is suffering will... With every passing state his share of the votes will keep falling.. the exception being SD, NE and MT... and honestly even there he may not win as his support is cratering.
As it becomes more and more evident that Cruz has no path, and that a contested convention would be absolutely devastating, and Cruz continues to act like an establishment politician, the more and more people who may not like Trump, will either stay home or will vote for him just for the sake of preventing a contested convention.
I understand that yes, statistically its not over, but there is no path to recovery for Cruz, at this point he’s just harming himself long term.... I truly believe he may not even win re-election in 2018 with his behavior in this race... Even Texas has a limit to how much embarrassment they’ll endure.
It's just that this whole thing is so darn weird. If this campaign were a movie, it would be a satire. A TV show? A wickedly funny comedy. But the background is a president who puts Predident Camero of Idiocray in the "more Presidential" column. Our Constituion-based nation has become a parody of what it's supposed to be.
Here's what concerns me: Cruz is a wounded animal who can't recover. Mygosh even Savannah, Matt, and Chuck on NBC news were mocking the deal after interviewing KSick. If what by all rational paths has to happen does happen. Cruz isn't the only wounded animal out there. The whole of the GOP backstabbing elite have been exposed, marginalized, and their power base destroyed. Will they exhibit class and at least an ounce of patriotism or will they be Cruz's army of flame-throwers, destroying what is no longer theirs?
Meanwhile, look at Trump. At the beginning, I thought it was playful Trump playing a national game of Candidate Apprentice, being able to determine who would be "fired" along the way. But then the insiders got dumb....tried to stop him from visiting border patrol, from airing Miss Universe, even from letting him give kids a helicopter ride.
The result? like he said, he's a counter-puncher. Everybody who sought to destroy him who didn't apologize is through. Mygosh, look what he did to Ksick yesterday after The Collaberation. Those two idiots unleashed Rally Trump, and they think they have the brains to be President.
Okay, that's out of my mind and typed out. It is absolutely Shakespearean. And who is Trump? An absolute giant, among the very few, in World History as we've learned it. It's all so remarkable.
So yeah, I agree with your analysis. But I'm very cautious of the arrogant and entitled in the upper echelons. They may not stay classy, having been destroyed in terms of politics and power.