Whatever is going on in markets as to our impressions (eg; bull/bear) is IMO these days dominated by 1: worldwide currency wars and 2: flight of capital from NIRP or NIRP-coming countries. It’s not whether AAPL or MRK or JNJ is/are over or undervalued so much as it is (again, IMO) where do people with container ships full of money put their money when govts & central banks all over the world are trying to force-create inflation using negative interest rates.
This for example; makes US Tsys very attractive so buyers buy them up, despite some of the lowest coupons in history. Well, 1.6% for ten years is better than -.2% for...??
It is very confusing, it is a continuation of value distortion across all sectors and for non-rapid traders it is IMO largely uninvestable. The appetite/disdain for risk oscillates between the two of them far too often.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with holding cash, now, then, forever.
It is nice to read that from someone who seems to know about these things. It is my theory, as well, but based only on instinctual fear of the other options.