Posted on 05/11/2016 7:41:37 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Recently, fears have erupted in the press about a possible Russian military action against the three Baltic countries and Poland, in reaction to the NATO announcement of the transfer of 4,000 NATO troops, including two U.S. battalions, into these countries. In response, Russia has carried out military exercises near the borders of these countries, along with close fly-bys over the Baltic Sea against U.S. military aircraft and Navy vessels.
What gives? Could Russia possibly invade Poland?
I have lived in retirement as an American ex-pat in Poland for the past eight years. I live near Legnica, which is a city in southwest Poland which, for several decades, was known as "Little Moscow" because half of the inhabitants of Legnica were Russian military personnel, assigned to the headquarters for the entire Western Front. If Moscow had ever issued orders for the Red Army in Germany to attack West Germany, those orders would have been processed through Legnica.
The Russians will never dare attack Poland, and here's why:
1) DEMOGRAPHICS -- Russia is a country with 160 million inhabitants. 40 million people live in Poland. Any war-gamer or military strategist will tell you that when two military forces of equivalent quality are matched against each other, an attacker needs about a 4 to 1 advantage to assure his victory over the defender. Russia barely has that.
However, Russia's actual ratio over Poland is really much less than 4 to 1. In the case of a war against Russia, Poland could mobilize its entire armed forces against Russia, but Russia could not do likewise, since Russia is a vast country with many thousands of miles of borders to garrison and defend. Russia's actual edge over Poland is therefore a lot less than 4 to 1.
2) LENGTH OF BORDERS
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
“Six years ago, an airplane carrying most of the Polish government crashed while flying to Smolyensk to participate in a commemoration of the Russian deeds at Katyn. Imagine that — the Russians were set to admit, and apologize and atone for their acts, and then the tragedy occurred. It was the last thing they wanted to happen!”
The author is delusional. Russian air traffic control was till advising the plane that it was on course even when it was beyond the point of no return. And if the Russians wanted to atone for Katyn, why then did they never return the bodies or allow access to the wreckage?
That's how I see it. That being said, still, Poland must beef up her military, and always be vigilant.
Best example takes place in the summer of 1914. At the beginning of that summer, Great Britain and Germany were on the best of terms. They shared a common history and a language from the same family group. They had the largest amount of bilateral trade in the world and deep commercial connections with even the same banking families having a strong economic role in both countries. Even the British royal family was descended from the German House of Hanover. It was many months later before they changed the name to the House of Windsor. By the end of that summer, they were locked into the most brutal war which the world had ever seen over a brutal political assassination in another country where neither played even the slightest role.
Poland invaded Russia in 1920 during the Russian civil war. They were pushed back to Warsaw.
How many times has Poland (Prussians) attacked Russia?
In the last 100 years. None that I can think of.
I might add that at one time Chicago had the largest population of Polish People after Warsaw itself. Not sure if that is still true or not?
I’m convinced the world would have been much better off if Britain stayed out of World War I.
Poles are not Prussians.
I have read that Poland is the only nation to be completely erased as a political entity 4 times and yet still came back and continued to be a distinct nation of people.
I agree with you that Russia would be stupid to invade Poland. But, history is replete with stupid wars. Wars often result from mis-calculation, from calculated risks that get out of hand, and from minor players either acting on their own or contrary to the interests of their ally/sponsor.
The calculated risks that Russia has taken include: supporting an insurgency in the Ukraine and declaring an interest in the Baltic states (along with other ‘near Republics’).
NATO has responded by asserting itself not only within the sovereign territory of its member states, but also by projecting force in Ukraine and Georgia. Finland and Sweden are reconsidering their relationship to NATO. There is even talk in Germany of possibly one day meeting its NATO commitment to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense(!).
We can speculate as to Russia’s purpose in its provocations and actual violations of the sovereign territory of other nations, but it is a very good thing that Poland maintains a large (for its size) military force. Ditto South Korea. Ditto Israel. It is one thing for the Germans or the Swedes or even for the Americans to talk about geopolitic risks. It’s another thing for a front-line nation. Especially with the possibility of world in which order is no longer maintained by the US acting as the world’s policeman.
It certainly would’ve been a lot shorter and far less bloody.
That did not happen when the Germans invaded in 39. Not did it happen in Russia when the Germans invaded.
Actually Britain only entered the war because Germany insisted on attacking Belgium to get to France.
Big difference between 1939 and today. In 39 Poland was a mix of Poles, Volksdeutsche, Jews, and Ukrainians.
Today it is exclusively Polish.
The lesson the Poles should have learned from ‘39 is to be more like the Swiss: every man a militia member, a rifle in every home. Unfortunately, civilian firearms ownership in Poland is still basically nonexistent and illegal.
The Soviets built an enormous rail barge terminal in East Germany to ship troops and equipment across the Baltic because they knew that in any war with NATO the Poles would make Poland essentially impassable, especially to rail traffic.
So as the Poles viewed it, they were only demanding territory that had been illegitimately taken from them to begin with.
Pretty ballsy for a state that just come back into existence for the first time in 125 years.
Hmmm, I don’t think it’s that difficult to get a rifle or shotgun. Pistols are another matter.
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