[philman_36]

Polling 101: Weighting the Sample
Weighting can also be a handy way for news outlets to craft or fashion their own stories as well. Weighting with the intention of achieving particular results is an often charged but never provable offense, and it certainly makes dissecting polls on blogs fun and interesting. It is a low risk/high reward activity if networks or other pollsters were to engage in it, however: 99% of people out there will only ever hear or pay attention to the topline results and never dig deeper to find out more… in fact, it would be my guess that an overwhelming majority have absolutely no idea what weighting or Party ID splits even are when it comes to the polls they are digesting.

Fox News Latino?!

[Dave W]

You really are a troll, but I will respond again. First, polls are overwhelmingly correct. They prove themselves over and over and over. They were correct in 2008 and 2012 and have been correct in this primary season. Their reputation is firmly established within the political science world.

Polls are overwhelmingly correct. Republicans have never won the Hispanic vote - ever. To expect Trump to win the Hispanic vote is ludicrous and anti intellectual. Let us hope you are not advising Trump.

Trump himself has finally hired pollsters for the first time which he needs to do so if he wants to beat Hillary.

The highwater mark for republicans is Bush winning 37% of Hispanics in 2000. Trump won't get anywhere near that percent. As I stated in an earlier post, Trump will do well to win 30% of Hispanics. We are a much more polarized country than in 2000 and Trump's bold style of wall building and other comments don't necessarily harvest Hispanic votes. Trump needs to say those things, so the hope is he can win a greater percent of the white vote to put him over the finish line.

Here is a sobering fact: in 1988, HW Bush won 59% of the white vote and won 40 states in an easy victory. In 20012, Romney won 59% of the white vote and lost, as the polls predicted. So, a current day republican needs to win a greater percent of the white vote to win. Trump can achieve that if the democrat turnout is depressed and the democrat voters do not turn out to vote for Hillary since she generates zero enthusiasm. This is what I think will happen.