“Project costs for this one, 119 mile stretch of track through the relatively empty Central Valley have topped $69 billion, with only a fraction of those funds appropriated. The high speed rail authority has only purchased half the land necessary to complete the first leg “
I mean, this is an exercise in imagining large numbers. For those who do not know, the Central Valley of CA is not Los Angeles or San Francisco. It is more like Kansas. It is for the most part vast farmland, good farmland, as long as there is water for irrigation...which is no certainty. But it is empty land, 97% of it.
So, never mind that ALL projects in CA are required to underestimate their build costs by at least 60%....
This 119 miles is far and away the easiest segment of this project to acquire land for and build. The segment over the Teton pass north of LA being costlier and the segments within and thru LA or SF metro being astronomically freaking more expensive to acquire ROW and build (Central Valley segment should require some bridges for sure, but nothing like the bridge & tunnel engineering that will be required in more urban areas.
So if this 119 mile segment is $69 billion @ roughly 30% of the total line length then the whole thing will be 10/3rds that, or $230 billion and that is perforce underestimated by 60%, then the whole project cost can be estimated at 10/4 * $230 billion or $575 billion. Except I am not accounting for the higher cost of buying ROW in SF and LA over the cheapest land in CA other than the desert.
Anyone who thinks this is not a trillon dollar project, Jerry, is a flaming idiot.
Meanwhile —
A wall on our southrtn border? A wall? Hmmmmmmmm. Too complex. Too difficult. We couldn’t manage it. And at a cost of $2000 Per foot, its far too expensive!!!!
Good assumptions.
1.5 trillion?
‘It is more like Kansas. It is for the most part vast farmland, good farmland, as long as there is water for irrigation’.
Operative phrase ‘as long as there is water for irrigation’. We drove the Central Valley south in the fall of 2009. Many small signs that read ‘Congress created dustbowl’. No longer live in California and have been wondering if the politicos have released more water for the farmers. Nothing but a political destruction of the farms, all to protect a tiny fish.