According to reports, the plane was at 16,000 feet when it exploded about 12 minutes into the flight.
The FIM-92 Stinger has a range of 16,000 to 25,000 feet depending on what source you read. So why do you rule out a shoulder fired missile.
The FIM-92 Stinger has a range of 16,000 to 25,000 feet depending on what source you read. So why do you rule out a shoulder fired missile.
The FIM-92 Stinger is a man-portable infrared homing anti-aircraft missile system produced by Raytheon Missile Systems. It has a range of 4,800 meters (15,700 ft) and can hit aircraft at altitudes up to 3,800 m (12,500 ft). It has been in service since 1981 and remains in use with the United States Armed Forces and with 30 other countries.
Based on this, a Stinger wouldn’t do it.
Later-model Russian MANPADs have similar capabilities. During my aircrew days, the rule of thumb we used for newer shoulder-fired SAMs (in terms of altitude) was 23,000 feet. Climbing against a night sky, with all engines operating above cruise power, the 747 would have presented a very good IR target.
Because the missile plume would have burned out long before it reaches 5,000 feet and the missile is non-reflective and about 4’ long, and with no plume and no reflection and small, no way it could have been seen miles away,
That range is total distance, not just altitude. A plane a mile away at 16,000 feet altitude is actually 16,848 feet from away from the launch site. To be out of range at 25,000 feet distance, the plane would be at 16,000' altitude, and only 3-3/4 miles away from the launch site. Wiki says max range on the FIM-92 was 26,000', so that would be 16,000' altitude and around 3.9 miles away. Also, the plane would be moving, and depending on those variables, the MANPAD would have had to have been damn near right under the plane's flight path and timed just right.
I don't discount the plane was shot down, I just don't think a MANPAD did it. If it did, they were damned lucky.