It is known that the recession of 1857 impacted the approval voting of the Morrill tariff.
Just as important to the business community as was the protectionist tariff, so was the tariff to the federal government.
In discussions of the Morrill Tariff, the condition of the US Treasury is forgotten.
Public Debt of the Federal Government 1857-1860
(Source: Historical Statistics of the US, Series Y-493-504, page 1118)
1857 ........$28,701,000
1858 ........$44,913,000
1859 ........$58,498,000
1860 ........$64,844,000
No more so than the New York media currently control the elections.
The New York businessmen had influence with Lincoln, and *HE* controlled the Army and the Navy. In regards to Southern independence, the primary necessities of both groups aligned.
Lincoln's government needed the import tariff money caused by Southern exports, and Northern Eastern Businessmen not only wanted the revenue stream from Southern exports they had been enjoying for decades, but they wanted to prevent competition created by millions of dollars worth of capitalization which would occur in the South if it were allowed to remain independent.
The answer to both concerns was war to reestablish control of those revenue producing areas.
In discussions of the Morrill Tariff, the condition of the US Treasury is forgotten.
In the larger scheme of things, the loss to the Federal Government of tariff revenue was the lesser issue. Far more money than that was at stake if the South remained independent.
Just an aside here, to put a human face on this, the going price of a black male between 16 and 40 years old in the 1850’s was $1,200 dollars.